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January 6, 2006

United States
The USA, China and Saudi Arabia - the big three of global adjustment?

The standard discussion of the unbalanced world divies the world up into three: the US, Europe and Japan/ Asia.   And the standard discussion of global imbalances says all three need to do their part…

November 30, 2004

United States
Their savings, our problem?

It seems like American households are now saving about a penny of every dollar they earn, and recently even less. Foreigners exporting to the US, in contrast, save roughly 35 cents of every dollar …

June 14, 2006

Financial Markets
The shifting balance of oil power

The Wall Street Journal has noticed that the state is no longer in retreat from the commanding heights of the global economy.  The basic pattern of capital flows is now set by central banks, not priv…

June 11, 2007

Monetary Policy
“Asia’s importance in the bond market cannot be overstated”

That quote doesn't come from me -- but from someone with a bit more authority: Jim Caron, co-head of global interest rate strategy at Morgan Stanley (quoted by Michael MacKenzie in Monday's F…


September 13, 2008

Financial Markets
Much to worry about

The New York Federal Reserve Bank doesn’t use its ability to summon Wall Street’s top leadership to its downtown castle lightly. This doesn’t seem quite like LTCM either. For one, the US Trea…

June 6, 2008

$140 oil

Call me surprised. If you had asked me two years ago if oil could come close to $140 amid a US slowdown in the absence of a major interruption in supply, I would have hedged a bit, but ultimately sa…

March 5, 2009

A global stimulus shortage …

China doesn’t exactly want to make it easy to evaluate the size of its stimulus. Bragging about the small size of your fiscal deficit -- especially in relation to the US deficit -- suggests a rath…

June 18, 2010

Fossil Fuels
Is Drilling a Relief Well in Advance the Answer to Deepwater Blowout Risk?

There is a lot of buzz over Senator Frank Lautenberg’s suggestion that oil companies be required to drill a relief well at the same time as they drill any deepwater production well. That would allow …

November 29, 2010

United States
Egypt’s Elections Mess: Why We Don’t Care

Yesterday’s parliamentary elections in Egypt were pretty bad.  The litany of opposition complaints was long.  As I write, there are 8 confirmed deaths and numerous injured in clashes between the se…

egypt elections democracy

August 17, 2010

Summer Reading

I’m traveling for the next couple weeks and so will be posting lightly (at best). In lieu of analysis, here are a few things I’ve been reading that I’d encourage others to look at too: “Evaluation o…