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March 8, 2005

United States
The sharecropper society

I suspect Warren Buffet would agree with Bill Gross.There is one easy way to make it easier for the US to deal with its own aging population: Stop promising so much of our future income to support th…

January 5, 2005

Capital Flows
Competitve compassion: the coming development debate

Act one: Tsunami. A few well-timed comments on stinginess produced an outpouring of aid.Act two: The UK plans a "development" G-8 summit. The summit won’t happen for a while, but the real negotiati…

June 8, 2005

Economics
Greenspan’s conundrum and oil

The most profitable sector of the Chinese economy, according to data from UBS. Mining. It is not even close. I presume that includes mining for oil. Remember that. I will return to it in a bit.A…

March 18, 2006

United States
What Geithner said. And then some

Most of the blogosphere has already weighed in on Tim Geithner's most recent speech.   I am a bit late to the party.   And I may not have much to add. I deeply agree with Geithner's argument…

April 12, 2006

United States
Watch for imports to surge in March

China's March trade surplus topped $11b - and its goods exports were a very impressive $78 billion.  China February surplus was about $2.5 billion, and its exports only 54.1 billion.  China had a…

Watch for imports to surge in March

June 9, 2006

United States
Not quite as bad as I expected (the April trade numbers)

A $63.4b trade deficit isn't small.    But it is a bit smaller than the average $65b deficit of the fourth quarter.  And, in all honesty, I expected a bit higher number.The dog that didn't ba…

September 7, 2006

China
Tyler Cowen apparently did not read my China testimony! The RMB’s value does influence trade flows

The New York Times’ conservative columnists certainly know how to get my blood boiling.  David Brooks, among other things, apparently thinks the key to a hedge fund salary is good people skills – not…

August 24, 2007

Monetary Policy
Falling central bank Treasury holdings at the New York Fed

The recent custodial data from the Fed leaves no doubt that foreign central banks have dramatically reduced their Treasury holdings in August.    Thanks to Russ Winter, I realized that the New York F…

April 28, 2008

Financial Markets
$120 oil and the rise of the Gulf

The Economist put the Gulf on its cover this week. It isn’t hard to see why. The Gulf was booming with oil at $ 60 a barrel. It is roaring with oil at close to $120 a barrel. Consider the follow…

gulf_1

May 4, 2008

Financial Markets
The Economist and Goldman on oil and the dollar

I liked the lede of this week’s economist story on the Fed, the dollar and oil: “THE spirit of St Augustine hovered over the Federal Reserve this week. “Oh Lord, let us stop cutting interest rates…