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January 25, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
When will the bond market wake up

I know, I know, Morgan Stanley’s investors have spoken, and there is no bond market bubble. But the federal government certainly is swimming in a sea of red ink.I hope we have asked the Bank of Japan…

March 9, 2005

Monetary Policy
Reserve accumulation and the financing of the February US trade deficit

The dollar is under a bit of pressure today. The renminbi keeps falling too. The logic behind China’s tight peg to the dollar continues to elude me. The US dollar needs to depreciate as part of an…

March 8, 2005

United States
The sharecropper society

I suspect Warren Buffet would agree with Bill Gross.There is one easy way to make it easier for the US to deal with its own aging population: Stop promising so much of our future income to support th…

January 11, 2005

Emerging Markets
Should the IMF ever take a haircut?

Before Argentina’s default, Adam Lerrick thought the IMF (or the G-7) should offer to buy Argentina’s bonds at 60 cents on the dollar. Argentina is now offering bondholders an exchange that will be …

June 1, 2005

Economics
An unbalanced US economy continues to get more unbalanced

Yes, I am repeating myself. But the data is pretty clear.Housing Prices. Up. Particularly in big cities on the coasts. Leading indicators for housing. Up. Check out Calculated Risk for more.Ma…

June 19, 2005

China
Two articles on China. One good. One not so good.

Reuters has done a nice wrap up of what we know -- and more importantly what we don’t know -- about how China manages its reserves. They correctly note that the TIC data misses so much that it, alon…

July 29, 2005

China
Words of Wisdom from Ted Truman

It is always worth paying attention to what Ted Truman - former director of the Federal Reserve's international staff, and former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury -- is saying. And right now h…

August 1, 2005

Capital Flows
The real issue, of course, is who comes after Abdullah.

King Fahd has not been running the world's largest family owned petrol station for some time now. And right now, the Saudi royal family does more than run the  central bank of oil.  Saudi oil is…

June 6, 2005

Economics
So will the proliferation of hedge funds end with a bang or a whimper

The number of hedge funds is about the only thing that has been rising faster than the price of residential real estate (at least in some markets). Probably not a coincidence: hedge funds and real e…

July 28, 2005

Emerging Markets
Argentina has found an easy way to keep its reserves from rising

Pay off the IMF. Argentina is one of the few countries whose reserves have been growing about as fast as China's.  It just started 2003 with about $10 b in reserves (and a ton of debt), whil…