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January 3, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Borrowing is Saving, Up is Down

Edmund Andrews of the New York Times provides the Rosetta stone that lets us decipher the Bush Administration’s plan to cut the deficit, which seems to be a plan to pretend to cut the deficit. Here i…

April 4, 2006

The Euro moved as much in one day last week (Thursday) as the RMB has moved since July

But the European Union still thinks it needs to warn against the risk that China will let the RMB appreciate too rapidly.Memo to the EU.   Where have you all been?   China considered a bigger initial…

August 9, 2007

The balance of financial terror, circa August 9, 2007

Back in early 2004, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers highlighted the emergence of what he termed the "balance of financial terror."   China – and others – relied on the US for demand that t…

May 14, 2006

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Not quite sure the federal debt is an “ungoverned force”

Despite what David Brooks says.  The rising debt seems to be a direct consequence of cutting taxes and raising spending -- decisions the Bush Administration made.    The US may not be able to stop Ch…

September 29, 2007

Waiting for the Plenum

Michael PettisIt is hard to overestimate the importance to China's near-term and longer-term prospects of the 17th Plenum in two weeks.  These meetings, held every five years, are the main events…

June 10, 2007

United States
Last week’s data flow supported the US adjustment optimists … not the pessimists

The trade deficit fell back under $60b in April -- see Jeremy Peters' coverage in the New York Times.  The fall in the overal deficit stemming more from a fall in non-oil imports rather than from…


December 2, 2007

China: selling Treasuries and buying yen? What do we know about how China manages its foreign assets?

Put the latest from Stratfor and Yves Smith (Naked Capitalism) together, and it seems like China may be scaling back on its holdings of US treasuries in order to buy yen.  Stratfor hints that China m…


October 14, 2007

Why did China only add $100b to its fx reserves in the third quarter?

Chinese reserve growth, on the surface, seems to be slowing.   The q3 headline increase was “only” $101b – down from $135b in q1 and $130b in q2.   The actual slowdown is even more dramatic.    If Ch…

December 10, 2007

The search for China’s missing foreign assets …

Yesterday I noted the remarkable slowdown in China’s reserve growth over the last few months.     Chinese reserve growth over the last three months – after adjusting for estimated valuation gains -- …


November 13, 2007

China’s CPI numbers look bad

Michael PettisFinally the November CPI numbers for China are in.  I said I would try to write about other things besides China, but here I am, my third post on Brad's blog, and still nothing but …