September 21, 2010
In February 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Nigeria. Read the update.
Elections in Nigeria scheduled for January 2011 may well be the fi…
February 6, 2015
The success or failure of democracy, rule of law, and ethnic and religious reconciliation in Nigeria is a bellwether for the entire continent. With a population of more than 177 milli…
July 28, 2015
There is growing risk of a violent uprising in the West Bank that could be costly to Israelis and Palestinians and harmful to U.S. interests. Violence could be ignited in various ways…
March 5, 2015
Political instability and potential violence could threaten Zimbabwe in the coming twelve to eighteen months. Zimbabwe's ninety-one-year-old president, Robert Mugabe, has no clear suc…
May 15, 2013
In March 2016, the authors wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Jordan. Read the update.
Jordan has so far weathered the political storm that has engulfed…
April 22, 2013
Tensions have risen to dangerous levels between Japan and China over a small group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, called the Senkaku by the Japanese and the Diaoyu by t…
April 11, 2012
In April 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in the South China Sea. Read the update.
The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is signif…