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May 21, 2020

Conflict Prevention
Military Confrontation in the South China Sea

The trade war, fallout from COVID-19, and increased military activity raise the risk of conflict between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea. Here’s how the U.S. can prevent or mitigate a clash.

A woman on a naval vessel looks at the sea through binoculars.

September 21, 2010

Nigeria
Electoral Violence in Nigeria

Overview In February 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Nigeria. Read the update. Elections in Nigeria scheduled for January 2011 may well be the fi…

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February 6, 2015

Nigeria
Nigeria's 2015 Presidential Election

Introduction The success or failure of democracy, rule of law, and ethnic and religious reconciliation in Nigeria is a bellwether for the entire continent. With a population of more than 177 milli…

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July 28, 2015

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
A Violent Uprising in the West Bank

Introduction There is growing risk of a violent uprising in the West Bank that could be costly to Israelis and Palestinians and harmful to U.S. interests. Violence could be ignited in various ways…

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April 22, 2013

Territorial Disputes
A Sino-Japanese Clash in the East China Sea

Introduction Tensions have risen to dangerous levels between Japan and China over a small group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, called the Senkaku by the Japanese and the Diaoyu by t…

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February 26, 2019

China
Averting a Cross-Strait Crisis

Domestic politics in China, political trends in Taiwan, and changing U.S. policy toward Taiwan are increasing the risk of a cross-strait crisis in the coming months. The United States should take ste…

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen visits the Sixth Army Command, ahead of Lunar New Year, in Taoyuan, Taiwan, January 25, 2019.

November 8, 2017

Europe
The Unraveling of the Balkans Peace Agreements

Tensions are rising in the Balkans and the risk of renewed violence is growing, but the United States can help preserve peace and stability in the region.

Demonstrators storm into Macedonia's parliament in Skopje on April 27, 2017.

April 11, 2012

South China Sea
Armed Clash in the South China Sea

In April 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in the South China Sea. Read the update. Introduction The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is signif…

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September 23, 2015

Territorial Disputes
A China-Vietnam Military Clash

Introduction The risk of a military confrontation between China and Vietnam is rising. Although the two countries have enjoyed close party-to-party ties for decades, since 2011 they have both asse…

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March 10, 2016

Jordan
Growing Stress on Jordan

In 2013, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Contingency Planning Memorandum "Political Instability in Jordan" warned that the biggest threat to the stability of the Hashemite Kingdom stemmed from…

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