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May 16, 2005

Economics
Cows, calves and the interest rate

Trackback is a dangerous thing. I just have learned that some of my blog posts have been compared to modernist poems. No doubt my last couple of posts have been a bit of a slog, heavy on both data…

May 27, 2005

United States
Bretton Woods Two and Trade Politics

The interest rate on the 10 year Treasury note is somewhere between 4.0-4.1% -- and the US seems to be having no trouble financing its current account (or its budget) deficit right now. The risk of…

May 27, 2005

Economics
Housing bubbles, the great plains and the coast

Not all parts of America are enjoying a housing bubble. $65,000 will buy a brick home with three bedrooms and a two car garage in Stafford Kansas, though maybe not ten acres of prairie as well. Low…

June 1, 2005

Economics
An unbalanced US economy continues to get more unbalanced

Yes, I am repeating myself. But the data is pretty clear.Housing Prices. Up. Particularly in big cities on the coasts. Leading indicators for housing. Up. Check out Calculated Risk for more.Ma…

June 30, 2005

Capital Flows
CNOOC (once again)

The CNOOC bid presumably is motivated by two things. One, Beijing has plenty of cash, and already holds more Treasuries than it wants, so it wants to diversify its portfolio. As I argued earlier, C…

July 27, 2005

China
Forget Unocal. China really wants Intel

At least that is what "John Rutledge, a former economic adviser to President Bush" thinks.  To maintain its competitive advantage, Chinese companies must acquire technology that will make the country…

July 29, 2005

China
Words of Wisdom from Ted Truman

It is always worth paying attention to what Ted Truman - former director of the Federal Reserve's international staff, and former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury -- is saying. And right now h…

August 1, 2005

China
Can China add close to $300 b to its reserves a year and have no impact on the bond market?

Rarely do I disagree with the premise of an article more than with the Mark Whitehouse  Friday C1  Wall Street Journal article "China's Move Makes No Waves in Bond Market." Premise.  China moved…

August 17, 2005

Economics
It all comes down to oil and houses

Or  more precisely, how long the stimulus from rising house values (and the jobs created building and selling houses) can offset the drag of the (growing) oil tax.  Read John Makin in today's Wal…

August 23, 2005

Financial Markets
How to turn $120 million into $4,180 million in less than ten years

PetroKazakhstan is not quite Unocal.  But it is nothing to sneer at either.  To no one's surprise, CNOOC's failed bid for Unocal did not end Chinese oil firms' interest in foreign acquisi…