351 Results for:

March 9, 2005

United States
Beware, should Norway ever diversify its petroleum fund: more than you want to know about the market for US debt

The fastest growing US export: Debt, without a doubt.Exports of long-term debt securities have grown from $404.5 billion in 2001 to $890 billion in 2004. That is an impressive 120% increase over fou…

March 25, 2005

Economics
Trans-Pacific Real Estate Bubbles

If you think that speculation on real estate has replaced the stock market as the US national pastime, try visiting China.I expected Beijing to be one large construction sites, and was not disappoint…

May 27, 2005

Economics
Housing bubbles, the great plains and the coast

Not all parts of America are enjoying a housing bubble. $65,000 will buy a brick home with three bedrooms and a two car garage in Stafford Kansas, though maybe not ten acres of prairie as well. Low…

January 24, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Hubbard is in pole position: the Sunday New York Time buried the lede

Apparently the Federal Reserve is beginning to worry that the Administration is not all that serious about reducing the fiscal deficit ... Wonder why. It seems like Martin Feldstein’s concerns abou…

June 30, 2005

Capital Flows
CNOOC (once again)

The CNOOC bid presumably is motivated by two things. One, Beijing has plenty of cash, and already holds more Treasuries than it wants, so it wants to diversify its portfolio. As I argued earlier, C…

May 28, 2005

A prediction: China will eventually protect its agricultural sector

You know, the global norm is not free trade in agriculture ... If China doesn’t want its peasants to compete against subsidized US and European agricultural exports, I suspect that it has a range of …

November 28, 2005

China
China still pegs to the dollar …

And it intervenes in a big way in both the spot and the forward market.  But it doesn't manipulate its currency.  At least not technically.   The US Treasury - in a widely telegraphed move - deci…

August 26, 2005

United States
Dollar crashes, interest rates fall?

Alan Greenspan's legacy may hinge on whether that headline is written, or whether the headline reads: "Dollar crashes, interest rates surge." From Reuters:Although a dollar crash is unlikely anyt…

April 18, 2006

China
Not working — China’s attempts to rebalance its economy

China's leaders talk of rebalancing the basis for Chinese growth, shifting from exports and investment to consumption.   That makes a lot of sense to me.  China's economy is every bit as unba…

March 27, 2006

United States
Good thing Michael Mandel read my 2004 paper, not my 2005 paper -

With the 2004 paper on US external sustainability, there is at least some possibility that Nouriel's and my dire forecasts will prove to be right.   The core argument of that paper is that the co…