Though Prime Minister Bruno Tshibala of Democratic Republic of Congo officially announced on June 12 that President Joseph Kabila would not stand for a controversial third term, this has not ended speculation that Kabila, whose term of office expired in 2016, will find a way to continue to stay in power. Shortly thereafter, in what will surely complicate the election, the International Criminal Court acquitted Jean-Pierre Bemba, the former Congolese vice president, an ex-warlord, and a fierce rival of Kabila.

Harvard Professor Joseph Nye once said that “security is like oxygen: you do not tend to notice it until you begin to lose it.” Alliances also often function like oxygen, with the security and stabil…