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September 4, 2005

China
If it is still a dollar peg, where is the monetary policy flexiblity?

I rarely agree with Steven "trade deficits do not matter" Jen.   His models for G3 exchange rate determination leave out a variable - the pace at which the US is adding to its external debt and its r…

September 12, 2005

United States
Katrina and the current account deficit

At least a half percent off US GDP growth for the remainder of this year (Goldman says more), $150 billion in new federal spending (much of that in fiscal 2006), higher gasoline prices now and next y…

September 12, 2005

China
Show me the money (really, show me China’s reserves)

China's Alan Greenspan (Zhou Xiaochuan) has indicated China won't roil financial markets with "active composition adjustments of the foreign reserves."  fine.   But any central bank adding ab…

September 13, 2005

United States
The $58 billlion July trade deficit

Consider the increase in non-petroleum imports relatively to imports in the same month a year ago.January y/y increase: 16.3%February: 13.6%March: 7.7%April: 10.6%May: 9.1%June: 8.5%July: 6.3%All dat…

September 13, 2005

China
Time to change the way we think about the world

China's  August goods exports: $68 billion US July goods exports: $75 billion China should start exporting more goods than the USA in late 2005/ early 2006.  That is rather impressive.  It means…

September 16, 2005

United States
The q2 current account deficit and global adjustment

Some days are marked by a surplus of good material.   The TIC data.  The second quarter current account data.  DeLong's magnus opus on what the great and good talked about on the margins of Jacks…

September 20, 2005

China
China’s reserves increased by $29b in July.

They rose from $711 b at the end of June to around $740b at the end of July. if all $29b flowed into the US, it would be enough to finance about 1/2 of the July trade deficit.  And since the euro/…

October 4, 2005

Financial Markets
Forget China, let’s talk about oil

Not the oil price per se, but what oil producers are doing with all the coin that comes with high oil prices.  I have rattled on and on about how China's current account surplus is on track to …

October 6, 2005

China
How many divisions does the IMF have?

So asks Andy Mukherjee of Bloomberg.  He wonders if IMF efforts to get China to allow its exchange rate to appreciate significantly would have exactly as much impact over Chinese policy as IMF effo…

October 14, 2005

Financial Markets
Are tax breaks for houses at risk?

Last weekend's Los Angeles Times (via the Economist's View) article on Bush's advisory commission made it pretty clear that at least one member of the commission, Charles Rossotti, had  t…