I rarely agree with Steven "trade deficits do not matter" Jen.   His models for G3 exchange rate determination leave out a variable - the pace at which the US is adding to its external debt and its r…

At least a half percent off US GDP growth for the remainder of this year (Goldman says more), $150 billion in new federal spending (much of that in fiscal 2006), higher gasoline prices now and next y…

China's Alan Greenspan (Zhou Xiaochuan) has indicated China won't roil financial markets with "active composition adjustments of the foreign reserves."  fine.   But any central bank adding about $20 …

Consider the increase in non-petroleum imports relatively to imports in the same month a year ago.January y/y increase: 16.3%February: 13.6%March: 7.7%April: 10.6%May: 9.1%June: 8.5%July: 6.3%All dat…

China's  August goods exports: $68 billion US July goods exports: $75 billion China should start exporting more goods than the USA in late 2005/ early 2006.  That is rather impressive.  It means tha…