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July 29, 2005

China
Words of Wisdom from Ted Truman

It is always worth paying attention to what Ted Truman - former director of the Federal Reserve's international staff, and former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury -- is saying. And right now he is…

August 1, 2005

China
Can China add close to $300 b to its reserves a year and have no impact on the bond market?

Rarely do I disagree with the premise of an article more than with the Mark Whitehouse  Friday C1  Wall Street Journal article "China's Move Makes No Waves in Bond Market." Premise.  China moved.  It…

August 5, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
40% y/y growth is hard to sustain

Regular readers know that I am convinced that the pace of Chinese export growth will slow.   That is a bit at odds with parts of the conventional wisdom.  There is a widespread sense that China is th…

August 11, 2005

China
China’s economy in 2005 is not what it was in 2000

China always has depended on export-led growth.   It is a core reason why China has been so successful.  China is just trying to hold on to the core of its success in the face of political pressure f…

Exports to GDP

August 17, 2005

Emerging Markets
Fuel subsidies (and fuel shortages) in emerging economies

If you care to head to Baghdad - and are willing to wait in line - you can fill up your car with premium gasoline for 3.3 cents a liter (around 13 cents a gallon).  Basic gasoline goes for just more …