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November 7, 2004

United States
Updated paper on the sustainablility of US trade and current account deficits

Nouriel and I have just posted our updated analysis of US external sustainability, i.e. the United States capacity to continue to run large trade and current account deficits.The paper is certainly l…

November 19, 2004

Greenspan in the news

Alan Greenspan’s comments on the US twin deficits are getting lots of play. Just saying that at some point foreign appetite for US assets is likely to diminish and won’t stay at its current strong p…

November 19, 2004

Greenspan, part II

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan was careful to frame the risk created by rising US external debt for foreigners investing in the US (and in the process financing the US current account …

December 7, 2004

United States
No Warm Glow from the Nobel Prize Here

Or more precisely, one of this year’s Nobel Prize winners in Economics seems to disagree with parts of the analysis Nouriel and I have been putting forward. It seems like Nouriel and I don’t underst…

January 3, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Borrowing is Saving, Up is Down

Edmund Andrews of the New York Times provides the Rosetta stone that lets us decipher the Bush Administration’s plan to cut the deficit, which seems to be a plan to pretend to cut the deficit. Here i…

April 4, 2005

United States
Ready for a $900 billion current account deficit?

$900 billion -- 7.2% of expected 2005 US GDP -- sounds extreme.But it is not entirely implausible.Assume oil stays at $55 a barrel or more for the remainder of the year. In that case, the higher oil…

May 22, 2005

Financial Markets
That strong renminbi (ok, that strong dollar)

The RMB has appreciated by about 7% against one of China’s major trading partners this year. Not the US, obviously. But that doesn’t mean that China is not exposed to moves in the dollar-euro, or t…

May 27, 2005

Economics
Housing bubbles, the great plains and the coast

Not all parts of America are enjoying a housing bubble. $65,000 will buy a brick home with three bedrooms and a two car garage in Stafford Kansas, though maybe not ten acres of prairie as well. Low…

June 1, 2005

Economics
An unbalanced US economy continues to get more unbalanced

Yes, I am repeating myself. But the data is pretty clear.Housing Prices. Up. Particularly in big cities on the coasts. Leading indicators for housing. Up. Check out Calculated Risk for more.Ma…

June 6, 2005

Economics
So will the proliferation of hedge funds end with a bang or a whimper

The number of hedge funds is about the only thing that has been rising faster than the price of residential real estate (at least in some markets). Probably not a coincidence: hedge funds and real e…