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November 10, 2019

United States
Happy 244th Birthday to the United States Marine Corps!

The U.S. Marine Corps turns 244 years-old today. On November 10, 1775, the Continental Congress adopted a resolution to create a Marine force composed of two battalions. Since then, the Marines have …

U.S. Marine Corps

November 13, 2019

United States
A Big Borrower and a Giant Corporate Tax Dodge? How Best to Describe the U.S. External Balance Sheet

Most grandiose explanations for the United States persistent surplus in the income balance of the U.S. current account miss the mark. The U.S. debt position tracks the sum of past current account def…

A Big Borrower and a Giant Corporate Tax Dodge? How Best to Describe the U.S. External Balance Sheet

October 31, 2019

United States
The National Debt Dilemma

With the U.S. national debt already exceeding $16 trillion, President Trump’s tax reform and budget deals with Congress have added to the country’s deficits. CFR explores the origins of the national debt, the risks it presents, and the outlook for change.

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October 15, 2019

Taiwan
What Does Taiwan’s Hidden Forward Book Mean for Taiwan’s Financial Stability and U.S. Currency Policy?

Taiwan's central bank—and Taiwanese households—have taken on an awful lot of foreign currency risk over the years …

treasury fx intervention taiwan 4

October 4, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 2)

Large-scale purchases of foreign bonds have become the central flow sustaining Taiwan’s massive current account surplus and keeping the Taiwan dollar weak. The size of this flow raises the question o…

Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 2)

October 9, 2019

Taiwan
$130+ Billion in Undisclosed Foreign Exchange Intervention by Taiwan's Central Bank

Based on the profits and losses disclosed by Taiwan’s central bank, it appears that its true FX exposures exceed its disclosed foreign exchange reserves by USD 130bn, and perhaps by as much as USD 20…

fig 19

October 8, 2019

Taiwan
Could Taiwan’s Commercial Banks Cover the Lifers' Hedging Need? (Part 4)

Who is on the other side of the massive ($250 billion) hedging need of Taiwan's life insurance industry? The local banking system covers at most a quarter of the life insurers hedging need, and forei…

fig 3

January 17, 2018

China
A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds

A primer on China reserve watching.

A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds

October 24, 2019

Japan
A Puzzle in Japan’s Balance of Payments: What Explains Strong Foreign Demand for JGBs?

Japanese investors have an obvious incentive to search for yield abroad. But why has foreign demand for Japanese bonds almost matched Japanese demand for foreign bonds?

A Puzzle in Japan’s Balance of Payments: What Explains Strong Foreign Demand for JGBs?

October 4, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 3)

This is the third post in a series* on Taiwan's life insurers and their private & sovereign FX hedging counterparties. It’s the product of a collaboration with S.T.W**, a market participant and frien…

Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 3)