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September 13, 2018

Military Operations
CFR Welcomes Visiting Fellows

September 11, 2018—The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) welcomes the 2018–19 visiting fellows to the David Rockefeller Studies Program. Selected fellows have the opportunity to broaden their perspe…

January 17, 2018

China
A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds

A primer on China reserve watching.

September 13, 2018

Turkey
Could A Coalition of the “Friends of Turkey” Ride to Turkey’s Financial Rescue? Could A Coalition of the “Friends of Turkey” Ride to Turkey’s Financial Rescue?

Turkey is in a bit of financial trouble. It isn’t clear that today's rate hike on its own will be enough. The rate hike will make the lira a bit more attractive to foreign investors (and will raise t…

August 20, 2018

Turkey
Framing Turkey’s Financial Vulnerabilites: Some Rhymes with the Asian Crisis, but Not a Repeat Framing Turkey’s Financial Vulnerabilites: Some Rhymes with the Asian Crisis, but Not a Repeat

Turkey has some similarities with the Asian crisis countries back in the 1990s, but also important differences. When emerging-market crisis typologies are updated to reflect the events of 2018, Turke…

August 13, 2018

Russia
Did Russia Really Dump Its U.S. Debt? Did Russia Really Dump Its U.S. Debt?

“Russia dumped 84% of its American debt,” blared a July CNN headline. Russian central-bank head Elvira Nabiullina said the sales were just part of “diversifying the entire structure of currencies…

July 30, 2018

International Economic Policy
Gone Fishing

I am planning to take the next few weeks off—no blogging. That at least is the plan, barring a major financial surprise. It thus seems a natural time to look back at the topics I have covered in t…

July 23, 2018

China
China’s Currency Is Back in Play China’s Currency Is Back in Play

China's currency is getting awfully close to some key levels, levels where in the past China has resisted further depreciation. The signals China sends from here on will be critical.

January 3, 2018

China
China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention.   And Europe's Too Little China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention. And Europe's Too Little

The ECB has almost certainly had a bigger impact on U.S. rates over the last three years than the PBOC, without buying (or selling) any Treasuries.

July 26, 2017

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico’s “Voluntary” Restructuring of GDB Bonds

Puerto Rico’s Oversight Board didn’t object to the terms of Puerto Rico’s proposed restructuring of the Government Development Bank bonds (and selected deposits) so it looks like the GDB restructurin…

July 10, 2018

China
My Latest Take on China's Foreign Exchange Intervention Proxies My Latest Take on China's Foreign Exchange Intervention Proxies

This one is for my currency trading friends...