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October 9, 2019

Taiwan
$130+ Billion in Undisclosed Foreign Exchange Intervention by Taiwan's Central Bank

Based on the profits and losses disclosed by Taiwan’s central bank, it appears that its true FX exposures exceed its disclosed foreign exchange reserves by USD 130bn, and perhaps by as much as USD 20…

fig 19

April 7, 2015

Politics and Government
Campaign 2016: Senator Rand Paul, GOP Presidential Candidate

Is America ready for a "Libertarian-ish" president? We are about to find out. Today Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) formally announced his presidential campaign, making him the second Republican candidate, …

Rand Paul Announcement

December 26, 2013

Defense and Security
Ten Americans Who Died in 2013 Who Shaped U.S. Foreign Policy

Year’s end is a time for taking stock, counting successes, and assessing failures. It is also a time for remembering those who are no longer with us. Here are ten Americans who died in 2013 who throu…

American flags fly at half mast. (Jonathan Ernst/Courtesy Reuters)

December 1, 2014

Global
Ten Historical Anniversaries of Note in 2015

Anniversaries are how we mark the passage time of time, celebrate our triumphs, and honor our losses. Two thousand and fourteen witnessed several significant historical anniversaries: the centennial …

Nelson-Mandela-Anniversaryy

September 21, 2006

China
Why China’s $1 trillion in reserves are unlikely to be of much use in a banking crisis

It is rather hard to read Andrew Browne’s report of the building boom in Zhengzhou in last week’s Wall Street Journal --- or for that matter many other accounts of China’s current investment boom – a…

April 28, 2006

Why does China have a looser monetary policy than the United States?

We know why the global economy grew strongly in the first quarter.   Nothing changed.  Or rather, the basic pattern that has driven global growth for the past few years intensified.The US continued t…

November 8, 2006

China
Absence of global rebalancing watch - first q4 data point from China edition

I spent last night following the outcome of the US election.   It looks like a majority of US electorate tired of Bush Administrations policies (and Rummy) before the rest of the world tired of finan…

chinatrade1

October 15, 2012

United States
You Might Have Missed: Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969-1976

Highlights from the recently-released Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969-1976, Volume XXXVII, Energy Crisis 1974-1980 Minutes of the Secretary of State’s Staff Meeting, October 22, 1974 …

Kissinger

March 29, 2012

United States
The Power of Witness: Imagery and Mass Atrocities

* coauthored with my research associate, Emma Welch Warning: This blog post contains graphic images. Last week, I was fortunate to attend a workshop at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, “Power of…

Memorial Srebrenica

August 16, 2007

Financial Markets
The dollar, still a currency that you run to?

There clearly has been a flight to liquidity recently.  T-bill yields have collapsed (See the Econocator).   Perhaps because of the Fed.  Perhaps because folks are hoarding cash and nothing that pays…