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January 4, 1996

Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament
Arms Control and the U.S.-Russian Relationship

Five years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States and Russia stand at a crossroads on arms control. Many of the arms control regimes established by Republican and Democratic admini…

March 23, 2004

United States
Rethinking the Role of the U.S. Mexican Border in the Post-9/11 World

Written Testimony before a hearing of the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate on “U.S.-Mexico: Immigration Policy & The Bilateral Relationship” Stephen E. F…

March 9, 2005

United States
HBO History Makers Series: Paul O'Neill

Council on Foreign Relations New York, N.Y. [Note: the transcript begins in progress] PAUL O'NEILL: --Citizens in an enlightened society need to understand that they've not only got to provide…

April 30, 2005

Monetary Policy
So, have central banks lost interest in Treasuries?

Two apologies in advance: First, this is one my wonkier/ data-intensive kind of posts. Second, this post responds to a subscription only Wall Street Journal C4 article by Agnes Crane that ran last …

July 14, 2005

Capital Flows
Is oil always sold to the highest bidder?

I suspect that the US is not prepared for the implications of a world where China’s reserves are rising fast enough to allow China to finance the purchase of one Unocal every month. I also would bet…

February 10, 2006

Palestinian Territories
Kurtzer: U.S., Israel and West Should Be Ready to Deal With New Palestinian Government If Headed by Non-Hamas ’Independent’

Daniel Kurtzer, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, says the West should be flexible enought to preserve political engagement with the Palestinian Authority.

January 5, 2006

China
Chinese Sterilization Watch

Three things to watch closely in 2006:The size of China's reserve increase.   Some say it is falling back from its recent $20 b or so monthly pace.  I am not convinced.   The amount of sterilizat…

February 6, 2006

Europe
Europe Update

Council on Foreign RelationsNew York, NYRICHARD R. BURT:  Well, thank you.  We’re going to get started right away, so we can keep on schedule here, but I’m delighted to be the presider or facilitato…

October 23, 2005

China
China’s crazy numbers

The Big Picture is right.  China's growth numbers are not to be trusted.   China's growth almost certainly slowed more than the government acknowledged in say 1998 and 1999, after the Asian c…

January 6, 2005

Financial Markets
Already Conventional Wisdom?

It seems like Asian central bank support for the Treasury market -- and other fixed income markets -- has become part of the conventional wisdom recently. We know Bill Gross has long worried about t…