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November 8, 2018

World Order
History Echoes as Trump Heads to Armistice Day Centennial

The turbulent aftermath of World War I informs our troubled times and reminds us of the potency of nationalism, the attraction of authoritarianism, the risks of economic fragmentation, the temptation…

A soldier's helmet hangs on a wooden cross on Armistice Day in Princes Street Gardens in Edinburgh, Scotland on November 11, 2006.

September 21, 2018

United States
Is Trumponomics Working? Not Really.

Trump’s trade policy is turning out to be worse than expected and the growth surge mostly reflects a temporary sugar high from last December’s tax cut. The caveat has to do with corporate investment…

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on his tax policy in Blue Ash, Ohio, U.S. February 5, 2018.

July 9, 2018

China
U.S.-China Trade War: How We Got Here

Background reading for the trade war with China.

Staff members set up Chinese and U.S. flags for a meeting between Chinese Transport Minister Li Xiaopeng and U.S. Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao at the Ministry of Transport of China in Beijing, China April 27, 2018

June 15, 2018

Russia
Can Reagan Show Trump How to Save the INF Treaty?

If the President wants to use an arms build-up to advance arms control, he should take his cues from the Reagan record.

Reagan and Gorbachev Signing the INF Treaty

June 14, 2018

Argentina
Argentina’s IMF Package Could Trigger Ugly Blowback

Markets welcomed the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) $50 billion rescue stabilization package last week, which seems to be stabilizing the peso. But the financial umbrella will be costly. Rightly or wrongly, Argentines blame the IMF for precipitating their country's worst economic crisis. In the eyes of many voters, the mere association will damage President Mauricio Macri’s standing.

People walk past a grafitti that reads "IMF (International Monetary Fund), never again" during a demonstration to demand jobs and social benefits in Buenos Aires, Argentina, June 1, 2018.

June 7, 2018

Germany
Merkel and Scholz Have Put the IMF in a Pickle

Germany seems to have ruled out all the mechanisms for eurozone fiscal expansion that the IMF liked…

Merkel and Scholz Have Put the IMF in a Pickle

May 11, 2018

Eurozone
Ireland Exports its Leprechaun

Irish tax distortions have a material impact on aggregate eurozone economic data.

Ireland Exports its Leprechaun

May 3, 2018

China
The Rising Bilateral Deficit with China and the Negotiations Over China 2025

A short review of the March U.S. trade data and a lot of speculation about the arc of the Sino-American economic relationship in light of the non-negotiability of Made in China 2025.

The Rising Bilateral Deficit with China and the Negotiations Over China 2025

April 17, 2018

U.S. Foreign Policy
A Global Report on the Decline of Democracy

“Centralization of power in the executive, politicization of the judiciary, attacks on indepen­dent media, the use of public office for private gain—the signs of democratic regression are well known…

Foreign Affairs May June 2018 Cover

November 21, 2005

China
Keith Bradsher demolishes the myth that China is a great market for American goods

The money quote in Bradsher's article in last Friday's New York Times comes from Matthew Crabbe: "The only US-produced items that I can think exist in large quantities in China are dollars bi…