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August 25, 2005

Capital Flows
Peter Galbraith and Iraq

I think the folks over at TPM Café are right: David Brooks' latest New York Times column is a real flip-flop.  He has gone from celebrating the United States firm commitment to universal democrat…

July 14, 2005

Capital Flows
Is oil always sold to the highest bidder?

I suspect that the US is not prepared for the implications of a world where China’s reserves are rising fast enough to allow China to finance the purchase of one Unocal every month. I also would bet…

October 23, 2005

China
China’s crazy numbers

The Big Picture is right.  China's growth numbers are not to be trusted.   China's growth almost certainly slowed more than the government acknowledged in say 1998 and 1999, after the Asian c…

January 5, 2006

China
Chinese Sterilization Watch

Three things to watch closely in 2006:The size of China's reserve increase.   Some say it is falling back from its recent $20 b or so monthly pace.  I am not convinced.   The amount of sterilizat…

March 18, 2006

United States
What Geithner said. And then some

Most of the blogosphere has already weighed in on Tim Geithner's most recent speech.   I am a bit late to the party.   And I may not have much to add. I deeply agree with Geithner's argument…

March 12, 2007

China
Just what is in China’s portfolio? And do foreign central banks think Agencies are Treasuries?

China's decision to set up a new investment authority with a mandate to invest in a range of assets -- not just traditional reserve assets -- has attracted a lot of attention.  But as the Bank of…

April 17, 2007

Financial Markets
Saudi riyal, Kuwait dinar, UAE dirham hit multi-year lows v. the pound …

They are also getting close to a record low v. the euro. Yet oil is, well, still rather strong.   Against the dollar.  But also against the pound and euro.   The euro and pound have gained significan…

October 19, 2006

China
Washington Post v. New York Times on China’s auto exports

Post: Bullish Times: BearishActually, it isn’t that hard to reconcile the two stories.   The Post focuses on auto parts exports.   Keith Bradsher of the Times focuses on exports of Chinese-made au…

August 28, 2007

China
Just how large is China’s subprime exposure?

Josef Joffe: [Can Moscow and Beijing] mend a global financial system battered by subprime crisis?   Where are the central banks of Russia and China?  Hmmm.    The fact that China and the oi…

August 6, 2007

Monetary Policy
The housing market shouldn’t bank on a PBoC put …

Yes, Virginia, seeking higher dollar returns to offset the dollar’s depreciation does mean taking on more risk.  And Steve Schwarzman wasn’t going to underprice his IPO just because China underpriced…