Back in early 2004, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers highlighted the emergence of what he termed the "balance of financial terror."   China – and others – relied on the US for demand that t…

In late 2004, Nouriel Roubini and I wrote that “the tensions created [by the Bretton Woods 2 system] are large, large enough to crack the system in the next three to four years.” In a 2005 Wall Stre…

I understand the reasoning behind the standard argument that big storms have less impact on an economy - particularly a large and diverse economy - than one would expect looking at the scale of the d…