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November 29, 2004

Financial Markets
Where is China keeping its reserves …

It is not too hard to figure out what Japan is doing with its reserves. From the beginning of 2003 to September 2004, Japan’s official reserves increased by $360 billion. Over that time frame, Japan…

December 6, 2004

Financial Markets
Surprise, Surprise: the Treasury waited til December to clear China of currency manipulation

It looks like John Snow did Andy Card one last favor before stepping aside: late on Friday, the Treasury quietly issued the annual foreign currency report. To no one’s surprise, the report declared …

December 11, 2004

United States
The Global Test

My harping on the fact that US economic policy now has to pass a global test is not simply meant to score rhetorical points. I suspect that the same folks who financed the expansion of the US curren…

November 21, 2004

Capital Flows
The Times is overselling the impact of the Iraq debt deal

Getting agreement from the Paris Club creditors to write off 80% (in stages) of the $40 billion or so that Iraq owes them is no doubt a good thing -- not the least because it lets the US (and Iraq) p…

November 12, 2004

Capital Flows
Geopolitics of a new G-7

There is a growing sense that the G-7 no longer is the right grouping for discussing today’s major international macroeconomic issues. It is hard to see, for example, how you can discuss "global reb…

December 16, 2004

Will Americans lose confidence in the dollar before foreign central banks …

There are two groups of investors that are massively overweight US assets: the world’s central banks, who still hold most of their reserves in dollars, and US domestic savers. US residents keep the …

December 2, 2004

Financial Markets
Renminbi tests multi-year lows against euro, pound, yen …

The renminbi seems to have reached a new low against the euro today, breaking through the low set yesterday before a very brief little rally. Every time the renminbi-dollar tumbles, I am reminded wh…

October 29, 2004

Financial Markets
David Wessel visited the Harvard economics department

Or at least talked to Summers and Rogoff, before writing his Thursday Wall Street Journal column. It is worth reading if you have access to the Journal. I agree with his bottom line: getting out of…

January 11, 2005

Emerging Markets
Should the IMF ever take a haircut?

Before Argentina’s default, Adam Lerrick thought the IMF (or the G-7) should offer to buy Argentina’s bonds at 60 cents on the dollar. Argentina is now offering bondholders an exchange that will be …

November 30, 2004

United States
Their savings, our problem?

It seems like American households are now saving about a penny of every dollar they earn, and recently even less. Foreigners exporting to the US, in contrast, save roughly 35 cents of every dollar …