374 Results for:

June 23, 2005

United States
How does the Fed imagine the US current account deficit will adjust?

Greenspan does not think a revaluation of the RMB would have a major impact on the US trade balance.The Fed does not think that reducing the fiscal deficit would generate a major reduction in the cur…

November 26, 2005

Economics
Kansas is flat, the world is not …

To paraphrase the New Economist, the Financial Times must think the world is flat.  They just gave Tom Friedman the inaugural Financial Times/ Goldman Sachs book prize last week - for a book based on…

chart 1

October 31, 2005

Monetary Policy
In an attempt to be fair and balanced

Here is a link to a paper by two IMF economists (Aizenmann and Lee) that concludes China really is building up its reserves as a precaution against a crisis, not just to support its export sector (im…

In an attempt to be fair and balanced

October 23, 2005

China
China’s crazy numbers

The Big Picture is right.  China's growth numbers are not to be trusted.   China's growth almost certainly slowed more than the government acknowledged in say 1998 and 1999, after the Asian c…

April 29, 2005

Financial Markets
So, is something about to happen to the RMB/ $

China now thinks its financial system is ready for a bit of exchange rate flexibility, at least if you believe the China Securities Journal. I am not sure what has changed, but since I -- like the Go…

April 25, 2006

Bad optics

Many have noted that the White House botched the stagecraft of Hu's not-quite-a state visit.  Forget Falun Gong.   Focus on announcing China's national anthem as the anthem of the "Republic o…

February 28, 2006

Financial Markets
Things that keep the President of the New York Fed up at night

The current account deficit, obviously.    NY Fed President Geithner isn't quite in the same place as Bernanke, at least in Bernanke's White House incarnation.And credit derivatives.   Partic…

April 4, 2006

United States
Bill Gross, no longer the bond king …

Bill Gross of PIMCO certainly seems to think foreign central banks matter - despite the arguments from some in the Fed (and the Treasury).Foreign central banks made famous and in fact prosperous by t…

October 19, 2006

China
The Economist v. Nick Lardy

China’s goods and services trade surplus is set to increase from $50b in 2004 to $185b in 2006.  China’s current account surplus is set to rise from around 3-4% of China’s 2004 GDP to around 9% of it…

September 8, 2006

Monetary Policy
Watch out China, you may soon be (financially) out-gunned …

China’s July reserve increase – at least if the end-July total of $954.5b that the Chinese leaked is right (Lex had a slightly higher number) – was pathetic. A measly $14b.  Not the manly $20…