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September 14, 2004

United States
The US current account

Q2 current and capital account data came out today. At 166 billion, the Q2 current account deficit was $10 billion or so more than expected. Since the goods and service trade deficit for q2 was alrea…

September 16, 2004

United States
Growing out of the trade deficit

The U.S. government’s spin on the widening trade deficit is that it reflects a growth deficit in the rest of the world. This spin does not hold up well. All parts of the world other than Europe are…

October 6, 2004

United States
Why is China running a current account surplus in the middle of an investment boom?

I spent most of the past week in Washington for the IMF’s annual meetings, trying to sell a few books. The focus of the meetings though, was not on emerging markets, but rather on oil, China and the…

October 13, 2004

United States
Oil and the US current account deficit

Oil above $50 a barrel is not good for the U.S. trade balance. Higher oil prices are a tax on US consumers, with the proceeds pocketed by oil exporters. If oil stays above $50 in November and Decem…

October 14, 2004

United States
Another month, another bad trade number

The latest monthly trade data came out today, and was worse than expected -- though in my view that indicates expectations have yet to catch up with reality. Exports have been stuck in the $95-96 bi…

October 20, 2004

Capital Flows
The IMF staff report on Iraq is a goldmine

I don’t expect many journalists will delve into it, but the IMF staff report on Iraq is a fountain of information. My favorite number: in 2004, the amount Iraq will spend importing (yes, importing) …

October 22, 2004

United States
How Bush budget deficits ended up hurting Ohio

Ronald McKinnon has an interesting argument in yesterday’s Financial Times (based on this policy brief), namely that manufacturing workers are paying for low US private savings and large US budget de…

October 25, 2004

DeLong on the global economy

DeLong’s powerpoint notes are certainly worth checking out. The side by side graphs showing real GDP growth and then employment growth (or the lack thereof) elegantly tell the story of the 2002-2004…

November 3, 2004

Economics
the best recovery money can buy

One interpretation of the results of the US election is that Ray Fair’s model (am having trouble with the interface, so no link -- it is available on nouriel’s web page in the elections section) was …

November 8, 2004

Pepsi is no longer red, white and blue

Buried deep within the Scott Kilman’s Monday WSJ article on rising food imports is the following gem:"Much of the Pepsi-Cola sold in the US is made from concentrate imported from places such as Irela…