78 Results for:

February 15, 2006

Economics
Mandel v. Setser. Round two. More on intangible exports and dark matter

I was rather busy last week, so I was not able to respond immediately to Michael Mandel's response to my response to his Business Week cover story - and now Micheal Mandel is shooting for slightl…

June 6, 2006

China
Yet more evidence China is an outlier

Poor countries tend to have relatively weak currencies – that is, there is a big gap between their currencies' nominal exchange rate and the exchange rate implied by “purchasing power parity.”  …

June 19, 2006

China
Paging Edward Hugh: Demographics do not explain the recent rise in Chinese savings

Louis Kuijs’ latest analysis seems to suggest – based on my reading -- that three common perceptions of China are more myth than reality.     Myth one: foreign direct investment has been a big …

June 25, 2006

Financial Markets
Only some emerging market currencies have corrected this year.

Emerging market economies with overvalued currencies now – generally speaking –have less overvalued currencies.   The Turkish lira was too strong at the beginning of the year.  Turkey’s current accou…

August 8, 2006

Monetary Policy
A couple of (mental) light bulbs …

I spend a lot of time thinking about reserves.  And I have long been puzzled by the modest April increase in China's reserves.   China’s trade surplus was solid.  There is no particular reason to…

September 27, 2006

China
What is the most important price in the world economy?

Dollar/ oil?The ten-year Treasury rate?The S&P 500?European policy rates?The fed funds rate?The RMB/ dollar? At an on-the-record event at the Council on Foreign Relations this morning, Martin Wolf im…

December 29, 2006

Monetary Policy
Call me Ahab (q3 IMF COFER data)

The data on global reserve accumulation is my great white whale.   I suspect I am about the only person who cares that the IMF just released its q3 data on global reserve accumulation.   What is the …

January 24, 2007

China
Corporate profits likely up by more in China than in the US …

OK, we don’t know how much corporate profits increased  But 29% increase in China’s corporate tax revenues in 2006 tops the 22.2% y/y increase in US corporate tax revenues so far FY 2007  … I thi…

February 14, 2007

China
Highly recommended: the World Bank’s latest China Quarterly.

What jumped out at me in the latest quarterly from the World Bank’s Beijing office?First, the data showing that labor income is falling as a share of Chinese GDP.    Moreover, its fall seems to have …

February 18, 2007

China
Goldman: PBoC using swaps to limit reserve growth

Goldman seems to have confirmed something that I -- and, for that matter, Stephen Green of Standard Chartered and Louis Kuijs of the World Bank -- have suspected for a while: China's "true" reser…