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February 15, 2006

Mandel v. Setser. Round two. More on intangible exports and dark matter

I was rather busy last week, so I was not able to respond immediately to Michael Mandel's response to my response to his Business Week cover story - and now Micheal Mandel is shooting for slightl…

June 19, 2006

Paging Edward Hugh: Demographics do not explain the recent rise in Chinese savings

Louis Kuijs’ latest analysis seems to suggest – based on my reading -- that three common perceptions of China are more myth than reality.     Myth one: foreign direct investment has been a big …

June 25, 2006

Financial Markets
Only some emerging market currencies have corrected this year.

Emerging market economies with overvalued currencies now – generally speaking –have less overvalued currencies.   The Turkish lira was too strong at the beginning of the year.  Turkey’s current accou…

August 8, 2006

Monetary Policy
A couple of (mental) light bulbs …

I spend a lot of time thinking about reserves.  And I have long been puzzled by the modest April increase in China's reserves.   China’s trade surplus was solid.  There is no particular reason to…

June 6, 2006

Yet more evidence China is an outlier

Poor countries tend to have relatively weak currencies – that is, there is a big gap between their currencies' nominal exchange rate and the exchange rate implied by “purchasing power parity.”  …

September 27, 2006

What is the most important price in the world economy?

Dollar/ oil?The ten-year Treasury rate?The S&P 500?European policy rates?The fed funds rate?The RMB/ dollar? At an on-the-record event at the Council on Foreign Relations this morning, Martin Wolf im…

March 23, 2007

Emerging Markets
Chindia (or maybe not)

The similarities between China and India have seized many (see Martin Wolf's column and the resulting discussion).   Both China and India have enormous populations -- and enormous scope to increa…

December 29, 2006

Monetary Policy
Call me Ahab (q3 IMF COFER data)

The data on global reserve accumulation is my great white whale.   I suspect I am about the only person who cares that the IMF just released its q3 data on global reserve accumulation.   What is the …

February 14, 2007

Highly recommended: the World Bank’s latest China Quarterly.

What jumped out at me in the latest quarterly from the World Bank’s Beijing office?First, the data showing that labor income is falling as a share of Chinese GDP.    Moreover, its fall seems to have …

April 22, 2007

China’s macroeconomic policy dilemmas

Like many with strong opinions, I sometimes criticize (politely, I hope) press coverage of topics that I follow closely.  For example, I have long thought that coverage of China’s consumption boom sh…