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December 4, 2005

Financial Markets
At last, some real evidence to back my argument on petrodollars

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has spoken; OPEC's dollar holdings are up and its euro holdings down. The prolific Steve Johnson in the Financial Times: Middle Eastern oil exporters…

January 30, 2006

Emerging Markets
It is hard to bet on curve flattening when the curve is already flat

Or spread compression when spreads have already compressed. As David Altig kindly noted, I was quoted in Clint Riley's Wall Street Journal story about the impact of a flat yield curve on bank ear…

February 13, 2006

Monetary Policy
It is back. Bretton Woods 2 (central bank financing of the US)

Some would say it never really went away.Emerging market economies did not stop accumulating reserves in 2005.  Best I can tell, adjusting for valuation effects and including all the foreign assets o…

February 15, 2006

Economics
Mandel v. Setser. Round two. More on intangible exports and dark matter

I was rather busy last week, so I was not able to respond immediately to Michael Mandel's response to my response to his Business Week cover story - and now Micheal Mandel is shooting for slightl…

November 8, 2005

Europe
More flexible labor markets, less business investment?

Apologies for being one day late discussing a Peaple/ Teitelbaum article in Monday's Wall Street Journal called "UK business investment lags."  My title is intentionally a bit overstated, but I w…

February 22, 2006

Capital Flows
The (strange) politics of globalization

Maybe the US would be better off if China owned Unocal's Asian oil fields Not economically.  Unocal's oil and gas fields are presumably worth a bit more now than they were last summer.  But s…

January 26, 2006

China
The intent is good …

The Governor of the China's Central Bank said pretty much all the right things at Davos - at least from my point of view.    China does need to base its growth far more on domestic consumption.  …

April 7, 2006

Financial Markets
Reality-based analysis of the oil exporters’ contribution to an unbalanced world

I am not a big fan of arguments not well grounded in data.Like the now immensely outdated argument that China's bilateral surplus with the US is offset by bilateral deficits elsewhere.   Right no…

chart 1

March 18, 2006

United States
What Geithner said. And then some

Most of the blogosphere has already weighed in on Tim Geithner's most recent speech.   I am a bit late to the party.   And I may not have much to add. I deeply agree with Geithner's argument…

April 15, 2006

China
Have China’s manufacturing powers been exaggerated?

In a word, no.Many in the economics blogosphere have mentioned Guy de Jonquieres recent FT column, Which argues that the US - not China - is the world's manufacturing powerhouse.  And usually in …