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November 24, 2004

Financial Markets
Chinese yuan hits new low against euro, swiss franc, pound …

Just a reminder of what falling dollar currently means. Dollar depreciation is clearly part of what is needed to bring the US trade deficit down to a more sustainable level. But what is the case fo…

November 7, 2004

United States
Updated paper on the sustainablility of US trade and current account deficits

Nouriel and I have just posted our updated analysis of US external sustainability, i.e. the United States capacity to continue to run large trade and current account deficits.The paper is certainly l…

December 27, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Beware of a 12 division budget and a 10 division tax base …

General Sinseki famously -- and it seems accurately -- warned of the risks of a "12 division strategy and a 10 division army." To paraphase the US Defense Secretary: You fight a war with the army y…

January 8, 2005

Has the broad dollar fallen enough

A standard rule of thumb, mentioned by Paul Blustein in his excellent look at the impact of a falling dollar on US trade last week, is that a 10% fall in the broad dollar leads to a $100 billion fall…

December 31, 2004

Capital Flows
Russia is to China as …

Canada is to the United States? Large in area, scarcely populated, cold and a major supplier of natural resources to its large southern neighbor ... Well, not yet. Russia, I think, generally exports…

January 2, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Social Security Crisis in 2018? Ridiculous

Take a look at this Washington Post article by Jonathan Weisman, which the big blogs have justly pounced on. The initial framing of Weisman’s article is just way, way off. Social security in no way…

January 3, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Borrowing is Saving, Up is Down

Edmund Andrews of the New York Times provides the Rosetta stone that lets us decipher the Bush Administration’s plan to cut the deficit, which seems to be a plan to pretend to cut the deficit. Here i…

January 15, 2005

Economics
Latest speech of FRBNY President Tim Geithner

I pay a certain amount of attention to what New York Federal Reserve President Tim Geithner has to say just because he was my boss at the Treasury and the IMF (noted in the spirit of full blog disclo…

December 10, 2004

Emerging Markets
Why Argentina should do its bond exchange, ASAP

Yields on Latin American bonds have not been this low for a long time. It is hard to believe that Brazil’s 20 year dollar bond trades at a yield of only 8%, and most long-term Brazilian bonds are in …

December 10, 2004

United States
Dow Jones: Central banks do not seem to be dumping dollars

That’s the tag on p. C4 of the Wall Street Journal.The smart money -- and regular readers of this blog -- know that this is real question is not whether central banks are, in aggregate, dumping dolla…