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April 19, 2021

China
Preparing for Heightened Tensions Between China and India

China-India tensions remain high. To reduce the threat of conflict, Daniel S. Markey recommends the U.S. boost aid to India and begin working with like-minded partners to develop a coordinated respon…

Soldiers stand on a snowy mountain on a sunny day next to a truck.

July 1, 2020

Afghanistan
A Failed Afghan Peace Deal

The United States has reached an agreement with the Taliban, but significant challenges, such as political power-sharing, the role of Islam, and women’s rights, remain for achieving intra-Afghan peac…

Afghan men attend a consultative grand assembly, known as Loya Jirga, in Kabul, Afghanistan, on April 29, 2019

April 3, 2017

Cybersecurity
A Cyberattack on the U.S. Power Grid

The U.S. power grid has long been considered a logical target for a major cyberattack. Besides the intrinsic importance of the power grid to a functioning U.S. society, all sixteen sectors of the U.S. economy deemed to make up the nation’s critical infrastructure rely on electricity. Disabling or otherwise interfering with the power grid in a significant way could thus seriously harm the United States.

Cyberattack on the US power grid

May 7, 2009

Iraq
Reversal in Iraq

Overview Iraq is currently in the early stages of a negotiated end to an intense ethnosectarian war. As such, there are several contingencies in which recent, mostly positive trends in Iraq could …

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February 21, 2017

Territorial Disputes
Renewed Conflict Over Nagorno-Karabakh

The likelihood that Armenians and Azerbaijanis will clash over Nagorno-Karabakh in the next twelve months is high. The situation remains tense following fierce fighting in April 2016 that marked the worst bloodshed since the 1994 cease-fire.

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March 10, 2016

Jordan
Growing Stress on Jordan

In 2013, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Contingency Planning Memorandum "Political Instability in Jordan" warned that the biggest threat to the stability of the Hashemite Kingdom stemmed from…

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September 11, 2017

Israel
Israel and Hezbollah: Deterrence and the Threat of Miscalculation

Neither Israel nor Hezbollah may want to return to war, but the risk of conflict is real—especially in Syria. The Trump administration can take action to prevent unintended escalation.

Hezbollah fighters in Syria.

July 28, 2015

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
A Violent Uprising in the West Bank

Introduction There is growing risk of a violent uprising in the West Bank that could be costly to Israelis and Palestinians and harmful to U.S. interests. Violence could be ignited in various ways…

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March 5, 2015

Zimbabwe
Political Instability in Zimbabwe

Introduction Political instability and potential violence could threaten Zimbabwe in the coming twelve to eighteen months. Zimbabwe's ninety-one-year-old president, Robert Mugabe, has no clear suc…

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May 15, 2013

Jordan
Political Instability in Jordan

In March 2016, the authors wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Jordan. Read the update. Introduction Jordan has so far weathered the political storm that has engulfed…

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