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November 19, 2004

Greenspan in the news

Alan Greenspan’s comments on the US twin deficits are getting lots of play. Just saying that at some point foreign appetite for US assets is likely to diminish and won’t stay at its current strong p…

November 30, 2004

Emerging Markets
Just because one dollar currently buys something like a million and half Turkish lira …

That does not necessarily mean the Turkish lira is cheap. Right now, given Turkey’s almost US scale current account deficit (close to 5% of GDP), the lira probably is a bit overvalued. Turkey is go…

November 22, 2004

US economic policy does not pass the Chinese test

You could sort of see this headline coming: China tells the US to put its house in order. Lenders never like receiving lectures on sound economic policy from their borrowers. John Snow might have …

December 9, 2004

Retired Wall Street Titans (and the renminbi-dollar)

Henry Kaufman’s name sits on the building where I work. If nothing else, that means you tend to take notice of his opinion.He nicely summarizes why many believe the dollar won’t fall much further, o…

January 26, 2005

Financial Markets
China reads the Economist. Is the Renminbi undervalued?

While China’s delegation to Davos seems a bit less than enamored with the dollar, the People’s Bank of China seems have read last week’s Economist, and concluded that there is no need to change the …

October 8, 2004

Capital Flows
Find a way to spend the $18 billion in Iraq!

I have a certain interest in the topic, since in my first and so far only foray into oped writing, I supported the Bush Administration’s call for $20 billion in US grant aid for Iraq (in the end, con…

January 12, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
So does the President think the US is bankrupt right now?

By the President’s definition, Social Security is bust because it can only pay about 80% of promised benefits with dedicated revenues in 2053, after the trust fund is exhausted in 2052, and only 75% …

December 29, 2004

If you cannot beat em, join em

Daniel Gross’s article on the currency preferences of the world’s underworld is too good not to link to. It seems like the world’s drug lords are less willing than the People’s Bank of China to fina…

March 8, 2005

Financial Markets
I hope Andy Xie is wrong about this

Xie argues that Chinese prices won’t converge to US levels; rather US prices are likely to need to fall to Chinese levels.When a small economy like South Korea begins to develop, it is quite reasonab…

March 22, 2005

Financial Markets
The $1.3 billion question: What will happen to the renminbi

A week in China certainly does not make me an expert. Like many, I see China through the filter of English-speaking Chinese economists, and, to more precise, through the filter of those economists a…