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June 20, 2005

United States
IMF surveillance of the United States

The IMF agonizes over how to make its surveillance more effective -- and how to get countries to listen to its advice. That is particularly true for large, powerful countries like the US and China. …

July 29, 2005

Words of Wisdom from Ted Truman

It is always worth paying attention to what Ted Truman - former director of the Federal Reserve's international staff, and former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury -- is saying. And right now h…

August 1, 2005

Capital Flows
The real issue, of course, is who comes after Abdullah.

King Fahd has not been running the world's largest family owned petrol station for some time now. And right now, the Saudi royal family does more than run the  central bank of oil.  Saudi oil is…

July 26, 2005

Andy Xie gives no quarter

Xie to the market (and to the US): Take your 2% and stop telling China to revalue! Here is the difference between Xie and me, put simply. Xie thinks the US is trying to get China to "artificially"…

August 11, 2005

China’s economy in 2005 is not what it was in 2000

China always has depended on export-led growth.   It is a core reason why China has been so successful.  China is just trying to hold on to the core of its success in the face of political pressure f…

Exports to GDP

August 30, 2005

Rubin doctrine of international finance v. Greenspan doctrine …

The Rubin doctrine of international finance (From In an Uncertain World):1. The only certainty in life is that nothing is ever certain.2. Markets are good, but they are not the solution to all proble…

September 4, 2005

If it is still a dollar peg, where is the monetary policy flexiblity?

I rarely agree with Steven "trade deficits do not matter" Jen.   His models for G3 exchange rate determination leave out a variable - the pace at which the US is adding to its external debt and its r…

August 30, 2005

Emerging Markets
A small but important point - China’s current account surplus is growing in the face of the oil shock

Emerging Asian economies - as many have pointed out - are more energy-intensive than the US economy.   One reason: the US outsourced energy-intensive manufacturing to Asia, increasing the energy inte…

August 22, 2005

Capital Flows
The Wall Street Journal oped’s page idea of a “serious” policy on Iran …

Is to keep Iran out of the World Cup (see Monday's Wall Street Journal).    That is serious?Moscow's boycott of the Los Angeles Olympics had such a profound impact on US policy ... How about …

September 6, 2005

Capital Flows
Is Iraq an economic success? (What is Patrick Clawson thinking?)

I think it is fair to say that I see the world - and Iraq's economy -- very differently than Patrick Clawson.  Clawson argues in the New Republic that Iraq currently is financing most of its own …