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December 8, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
The central bank bid

It seems like America’s biggest creditors stepped up to the plate today. China’s rapidly growing reserves have to go somewhere ... From Bloomberg:"So-called indirect bidders, which include the forei…

October 29, 2004

Financial Markets
David Wessel visited the Harvard economics department

Or at least talked to Summers and Rogoff, before writing his Thursday Wall Street Journal column. It is worth reading if you have access to the Journal. I agree with his bottom line: getting out of…

June 29, 2005

Capital Flows
Selling off little pieces of yourself

If the US wanted to fund its current account deficit by selling equity, it would need to sell off the equivalent of 40 Unocal’s a year -- whether Chinese state firms, European firms, Japanese insurer…

November 21, 2005

China
Keith Bradsher demolishes the myth that China is a great market for American goods

The money quote in Bradsher's article in last Friday's New York Times comes from Matthew Crabbe: "The only US-produced items that I can think exist in large quantities in China are dollars bi…

March 15, 2006

Emerging Markets
Feeding the hand that bites you …

Justin Lahart writes well; I stole the "feeding the hand that bites you" line from him.  It is a good one.The US tells China (oops, CNOOC) that it cannot buy Unocal, even though Unocal's energy a…

April 30, 2006

Can the dollar block survive another bout of dollar weakness?

In case you haven't noticed, the dollar is now closer to 1.30 (v. the euro) than 1.20 - or even 1.15.  Carry is no longer king.   There is talk of a "regime change" in the fx market.  Or at least…

April 27, 2006

Unpleasant balance of payments math — why the interest rate matters for dark matter

Bill Cline of the IIE rightly took Nouriel and me to task (politely) for assuming that the average return on US FDI abroad would equal the average return on foreign FDI in the US in our 2004 paper on…

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May 22, 2007

China
No one covers the debate on China’s macroeconomic policy better than Richard McGregor

McGregor’s long analysis piece in today's Financial Times (free link here) shows why.  It is the best summary of China’s macroeconomic policy challenges – and the contractions associated with Chi…

December 6, 2007

Emerging Markets
The new financial superpowers (part 1)

In James Clavell’s Noble House, there is a scene where a fictional Scottish trading house operating in colonial Hong Kong ends either a run on its bank or a run on its stock (or maybe both – I forget…

November 3, 2007

Monetary Policy
If the governments of emerging economies stuck to buying bonds would everything be ok?

Bloomberg’s Matthew Lynn argues that those countries now fretting about the impact of sovereign wealth funds didn’t complain when sovereign governments bought huge quantities of bonds:   Nobody minde…