October 27, 2004
Financial MarketsSometimes you read something and it makes you stop, because it is at odds with your existing sense of how the world economy is working. Drossos and Kinbrough’s argument that China does not rely on a…
October 22, 2004
United StatesRonald McKinnon has an interesting argument in yesterday’s Financial Times (based on this policy brief), namely that manufacturing workers are paying for low US private savings and large US budget de…
October 25, 2004
DeLong’s powerpoint notes are certainly worth checking out. The side by side graphs showing real GDP growth and then employment growth (or the lack thereof) elegantly tell the story of the 2002-2004…
November 3, 2004
EconomicsOne interpretation of the results of the US election is that Ray Fair’s model (am having trouble with the interface, so no link -- it is available on nouriel’s web page in the elections section) was …
December 7, 2004
United StatesOr more precisely, one of this year’s Nobel Prize winners in Economics seems to disagree with parts of the analysis Nouriel and I have been putting forward. It seems like Nouriel and I don’t underst…
January 2, 2005
United StatesThe Fed has started to tighten, Greenspan said anyone who has not hedged their interest rate risk desires to lose money. Yet higher short-term rates have not led to higher long-term rates. In the j…
January 26, 2005
Financial MarketsWhile China’s delegation to Davos seems a bit less than enamored with the dollar, the People’s Bank of China seems have read last week’s Economist, and concluded that there is no need to change the …
December 18, 2004
My nominations.The renminbi-dollar at 8.28 renminbi per dollar -- a price that puts China’s per capita income at around, only a bit above Iraq’s per capita income. The ten year US government treasury…
December 19, 2004
My recent travels took me to old Europe -- and reminded me that the rest of the world is, in many ways, still unprepared for changes set to hit the world economy -- a world economy where the US trade…
December 31, 2004
Capital FlowsCanada is to the United States? Large in area, scarcely populated, cold and a major supplier of natural resources to its large southern neighbor ... Well, not yet. Russia, I think, generally exports…