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June 8, 2008

Financial Markets
Ken Rogoff is also confused by the US policy towards dollar pegs

It is nice to be in good company. Ken Rogoff is as confused by US policy toward dollar pegs as I am. Rogoff: Does it make sense for the United States Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, to be tourin…

October 20, 2008

United States
How far will the US trade deficit fall next year?

US exports have been growing faster than non-oil imports for the last two years. The August trade data hints at a slowdown in exports. But at least on a y/y basis, the slowdown remains modest. …

How far will the US trade deficit fall next year?

December 7, 2005

Gone (ice) fishing …

I will be away from my desk for the next week or so on a business trip.  I'll probably post a bit, modern communications and all.  But I doubt I'll post every day.    I suspect that a couple …

March 19, 2007

A strange way to go about rebalancing China’s economy…

China now exports more than it imports – a lot more.   Even most American economist are starting to recognize that the “China runs a surplus with the US but its overall trade is balanced” argument is…

August 10, 2006

United States
The June trade data (a day late)

The take away conclusion from the June data is that not much has changed.  The headline trade deficit was unchanged (more or less) from the revised May deficit   The US oil import bill was more or le…

June 21, 2007

Financial Markets
Yes, Virginia, exchange rates do matter (JPY edition)

The yen depreciates.   Against the dollar, bien sur.   But especially against the euro and other European currencies.    Guess what happens?Japanese exports to Europe rose by nearly 18% (y/y) in May…

June 16, 2006

United States
The first quarter current account statistics are kind to the USA

The 2005 current account deficit was revised down to $791.5b or so.The q1 2006 deficit was $208.7b -- down from $223.1b in q4.   We knew the trade balance improved a bit.  But the income balance also…

April 13, 2006

United States
An early look at the 2006 current account deficit

At the end of my post yesterday, I noted that the year over year growth rate in non-oil exports - 9.3% -- might be a bit misleading.   In 2006, the Chinese new year slowed US imports in February; in …

August 3, 2006

Trade politics could get nasty fast

The US economy looks to be slowing.   Job creation (and wage growth; also see Leonhardt in the New York Times) wasn’t that impressive even when the economy was growing strongly.   Like many, I was st…

September 10, 2007

Financial Markets
US monetary policy: right for the US, wrong for the dollar zone?

The US economy is faltering, at least a bit, on the back of the troubled housing market.   Uncertainty surrounding the value of debts backed by subprime US mortgages has created more than a bit of tu…