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April 16, 2008

Blog envy: on Europe, the G-7 and the Fed

Paul Krugman (who hardly needs a plug from me), Macro Man and Steve Waldman (of interfluidity) have all written posts that I wish I had written. Krugman elegantly shows that a lot of American stereo…

April 6, 2008

Financial Markets
A RMB that isn’t appreciating cannot be killing you …

The premise of Joe Nocera’s New York Times story “Two factories, two firms” is logical enough: an appreciating RMB should hurt a low-end, cost-conscious textile exporter and help a higher-end manufac…

March 25, 2008

Monetary Policy
Record reserves, Record reserve growth, record reserve currency angst -

Over the past several weeks: Thailand’s reserves topped $100b. Thailand, lest anyone forget, basically ran out of cash reserves back in 1997 (counting its forward commitments) - sending a clear …

December 13, 2007

Financial Markets
Euro-yuan-dollar diplomacy

Europe to China: Please do not buy any more euros.EU economic and monetary affairs commissioner Joaquin Almunia said China should not take any steps to increase its euro reserves at the moment.  Aske…

November 30, 2007

Financial Markets
Is the dollar’s decline over?

The Economist put the dollar on its cover this week.   The Economist’s cover is usually a lagging, not a leading, indicator:  it signals that the dollar already has fallen significantly, and sometime…

November 20, 2007

Financial Markets
A little too late …

China's premier,  Wen Jiabao, has joined the chorus voicing concern about the dollar's recent weakness.   Cheng Siwei comments two weeks ago seem to reflect rather widespread worries among Ch…

October 2, 2007

Monetary Policy
Central banks came close to financing the entire US current account deficit over the past four quarters

I have been reserve-obsessed for quite some time now.   The uphill flow of funds from the emerging economies to advanced economies strikes me as the defining feature of today's global economy.   …


September 12, 2007

United States
A savings glut, not an investment drought -

So argues Ben Bernanke.   His basic argument is very simple.  The emerging world now has a large and growing current account surplus that finances a large and growing current account defic…

September 10, 2007

Financial Markets
US monetary policy: right for the US, wrong for the dollar zone?

The US economy is faltering, at least a bit, on the back of the troubled housing market.   Uncertainty surrounding the value of debts backed by subprime US mortgages has created more than a bit of tu…

August 9, 2007

The balance of financial terror, circa August 9, 2007

Back in early 2004, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers highlighted the emergence of what he termed the "balance of financial terror."   China – and others – relied on the US for demand that t…