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April 30, 2007

Mexico's Oportunidades comes to New York

Last week Mayor Michael Bloomberg traveled to Mexico City, Tepoztlan, and Toluca to view their premier anti-poverty program, named Oportunidades. Bloomberg is launching a similar conditional cash-t…

December 2, 2007

China: selling Treasuries and buying yen? What do we know about how China manages its foreign assets?

Put the latest from Stratfor and Yves Smith (Naked Capitalism) together, and it seems like China may be scaling back on its holdings of US treasuries in order to buy yen.  Stratfor hints that China m…


December 5, 2007

Competition — and coordination — within the Chinese state as China goes forth

Today’s Financial Times has an important article by Geoff Dyer and Sundeep Tucker examining the overseas expansion of Chinese companies in general, and Chinese state companies in particular.  It is a…

December 13, 2007

Financial Markets
Euro-yuan-dollar diplomacy

Europe to China: Please do not buy any more euros.EU economic and monetary affairs commissioner Joaquin Almunia said China should not take any steps to increase its euro reserves at the moment.  Aske…

December 19, 2007

The alliance between China’s (nominally) communist government and Wall Street deepens …

The China investment corporation (the CIC) is investing $5b in Morgan Stanley, taking a 9.9% stake.That is a bit of a surprise, at least to me.   After the CIC's (mark to market) losses on Blacks…

April 7, 2008

Could a stronger RMB help limit food inflation in China

The FT’s Lex -- in the course of article that seems to suggest that the RMB will rise by far less than the market now expects -- says that China doesn’t import enough food for a stronger RMB to have …

April 11, 2008

China: $154b in q1 reserve growth

Neither the fact that China added $154b to its reserves in the first quarter ($153.9b) nor the fact that the RMB (briefly) broke through 7 was exactly a surprise. China’s reserves were heading u…


April 17, 2008

Financial Markets
Surplus countries depreciating when they should be appreciating

Most Asian currencies have depreciated significantly against Europe since 2003. And don’t get me started about the Gulf. It remains wed to the depreciating dollar even as oil soars. Following the …

April 27, 2008

What keeps Zhou Xiaochuan up at night

Friday’s Lex column highlighted the possibility that China’s real reserve growth may be far higher than the published increase in its reserves – and thus a lot more hot money may be flowing into Chin…


May 1, 2008

Managing China’s real appreciation

The BIS computes the real exchange rate for a broad range of countries (if only the data extended backwards a bit further). The BIS data shows that China’s real exchange rate tracked the US real e…