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June 23, 2005

United States
How does the Fed imagine the US current account deficit will adjust?

Greenspan does not think a revaluation of the RMB would have a major impact on the US trade balance.The Fed does not think that reducing the fiscal deficit would generate a major reduction in the cur…

February 15, 2006

Economics
Mandel v. Setser. Round two. More on intangible exports and dark matter

I was rather busy last week, so I was not able to respond immediately to Michael Mandel's response to my response to his Business Week cover story - and now Micheal Mandel is shooting for slightl…

December 19, 2005

China
The Chinese conundrum: External (financial) strength, domestic (financial) weakness

I disagree with Michael Mandel on the US current account deficit - I think it is a concern, he doesn't.  We also disagree on the US fiscal deficit.   He doesn't think it is a big problem; I d…

February 25, 2006

China
Is China’s peg creating more problems than benefits for China?

 Stephen "current account deficits don't matter, at least not in the dollar zone" Jen is starting to sound a bit like Brad "Doom and Gloom caucus, trade deficit division" Setser. At least on Chin…

February 5, 2006

United States
Is national income accounting biased against the US?

In a fake news classic, Rob Corddry and Jon Stewart of the Daily Show once pondered how to report "the facts" when "the facts themselves were biased."  Michael Mandel seems to think the facts are bia…

February 13, 2006

Monetary Policy
It is back. Bretton Woods 2 (central bank financing of the US)

Some would say it never really went away.Emerging market economies did not stop accumulating reserves in 2005.  Best I can tell, adjusting for valuation effects and including all the foreign assets o…

April 28, 2006

Why does China have a looser monetary policy than the United States?

We know why the global economy grew strongly in the first quarter.   Nothing changed.  Or rather, the basic pattern that has driven global growth for the past few years intensified.The US continued t…

February 28, 2006

Financial Markets
Things that keep the President of the New York Fed up at night

The current account deficit, obviously.    NY Fed President Geithner isn't quite in the same place as Bernanke, at least in Bernanke's White House incarnation.And credit derivatives.   Partic…

April 19, 2006

United States
You can not put dark matter in a container …

So says Michael Mandel.   Some of us might say you can't put dark matter in a container because it doesn't really exist.That is not Mandel's argument.  He believes in dark matter, though …

April 28, 2005

United States
Central banks, cheerleaders and paper losses

This week’s Economist looks at the "paper" losses that central banks issuing local currency (or selling local currency debt) to buy foreign exchange reserves would incur in the event of the revaluati…