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October 4, 2007

Financial Markets
2007 has been a lot better than 2005 for the dollar bears …

Some no doubt will take a revival of interest in a set of 2004 and 2005 papers (Rogoff-Obstfeld,  Krugman, Roubini-Setser, no doubt others) arguing that a real depreciation in the dollar is needed to…


April 24, 2008

Capital Flows
Adapting to the state’s growing role in global equity markets

Central bank purchases of traditional reserve assets still dwarf sovereign wealth fund purchases of riskier assets -- as well as central bank purchases of equities. But over time, it is reasonable …

June 27, 2008

Monetary Policy
Does the Fed’s mandate now extend to Beijing, Moscow and Riyahd?

The Financial Times, in a leader, says yes. If there were a Central Bank of the World its monetary policy committee would glance at today’s inflation rates and expectations of future inflation and …

December 11, 2004

United States
The Global Test

My harping on the fact that US economic policy now has to pass a global test is not simply meant to score rhetorical points. I suspect that the same folks who financed the expansion of the US curren…

September 24, 2012

Defense and Security
Ask the Experts: Do Targeted Killings Work?

The United States did not always carry out targeted killings (or assassinations) of perceived national security threats. To the contrary, the norm against targeted killings outside of battlefield set…

Armed drone Afghanistan

November 17, 2008

Financial Markets
The G-20 communique

The G-20’s communiqué offered a surprisingly robust work program for regulatory reform. MIT’s Simon Johnson even worries that it may be too robust – and push banks to scale back their lending in a …

September 20, 2005

Emerging Markets
Is the IMF heading toward irrelevance because of a revival in private capital flows?

My answer is no. If the IMF is irrelevant (I don't think it is), it is not because private capital inflows to emerging markets have rebounded to pre-crisis (i.e. 1996/97) levels.  It is because emerg…

February 10, 2009

Financial Markets
Toxic banks or toxic assets?

Two weeks ago, George Soros memorably framed the core choice the US now faces as a choice between buying toxic assets or taking over toxic banks. “The hard choice facing the Obama administration is …

December 30, 2005

Things I got wrong in 2005

Alas, this list is rather long.   There is a reason why Mike Dooley ended the first segment of our Econoblog debate by noting that he had been right (and I and other worry warts had been wrong) for 2…

November 28, 2006

Financial Markets
Gone (sand) fishing …

I am going to be away from my desk for a few days, giving a talk on petrodollars (and petroeuros).   Posting will likely be rather sporadic. Talking about petrodollars (and petroeuros) to group that …