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June 30, 2006

United States
DeLong is right. If the US wants to end up like Australia, US trade deficit needs to fall - unless foreigners continue to do terribly on their investments in the US.

As Brad Delong notes, the big difference between the United States and Australia is that the United States has a  trade and transfers deficit of close to 7% of GDP.    That implies – assuming the sto…


August 1, 2006

Memo to Mike Mandel: Wal-Mart doesn’t look like it is creating all that much dark matter …

Wal-Mart recently sold itsmoney-losing  German operations: Industry observers said Wal-Mart lost about €100m ($127.5m) on German sales of €2bn last year. Results failed to pick up in spite of the clo…

September 21, 2006

Why China’s $1 trillion in reserves are unlikely to be of much use in a banking crisis

It is rather hard to read Andrew Browne’s report of the building boom in Zhengzhou in last week’s Wall Street Journal --- or for that matter many other accounts of China’s current investment boom – a…

October 17, 2006

A trillion dollars here, a trillion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money

I have written extensively about China and Chinese reserve growth recently. So I won’t use Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal article as the spring board for another long post.  Just a sort of long post.T…

December 14, 2006

Paulson in Beijing: Can’t get no satisfaction

That is what William Hess argues in Newsweek International.  China cannot give Paulson what he wants without jeopardizing its domestic goals.  Hess writes:"Secretary Paulson will likely return home e…

January 11, 2007

Venezuela's turn toward socialism: Hugo Chavez plans to nationalize CANTV and EDC

On Monday January 8th, two days before his inauguration to a third term, Hugo Chavez announced that he would deepen his socialist or Bolivarian revolution by nationalizing companies that are deemed t…

May 1, 2007

United States
No need to worry — the US isn’t going to run out of assets to sell to foreign investors any time soon …

In a comment in the Financial Times about ten days ago, David Hale argues that there is little need to worry about either the dollar or the US current account deficit.   The US has no shortage of fin…

August 20, 2007

Financial Markets
If the US dollar is now a refuge, what is the yen?

The dollar rallied a bit last week, but nothing like the yen.The Wall Street Journal’s Mark Whitehouse conflates – at least in my view -- deleveraging with safe haven flows.   Deleveraging means that…

August 23, 2007

Financial Markets
If the US Treasury doesn’t think the dollar is overvalued, can it also think that RMB is undervalued?

Christopher Swann of Bloomberg noticed the line in the IMF’s most recent Article IV report indicating that senior US officials objected the IMF’s conclusion – based on their model for equilibrium rea…

May 11, 2008

Monetary Policy
Taking stock of the dollar’s global role

Peter Goodman looks at the dollar – and the growing dollar reserves of emerging market central banks -- in today’s New York Times. He captures the poles of the debate well. Ken Rogoff argues that…