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July 4, 2005

Economics
Enjoy the fourth. Take a break.

Because I am. I don’t expect to post much -- if at all -- this week.I need a small vacation.I am pretty confident that all the "imbalances" that the BIS highlighted will still be here in a week -- a…

January 25, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
When will the bond market wake up

I know, I know, Morgan Stanley’s investors have spoken, and there is no bond market bubble. But the federal government certainly is swimming in a sea of red ink.I hope we have asked the Bank of Japan…

July 21, 2005

China shifts to a basket peg

But the change against the dollar is small.  Very small. Too small in my view to have much of an economic impact, in any way.  On trade flows.  Or on capital flows.  I would still bet on a furth…

August 1, 2005

China
Can China add close to $300 b to its reserves a year and have no impact on the bond market?

Rarely do I disagree with the premise of an article more than with the Mark Whitehouse  Friday C1  Wall Street Journal article "China's Move Makes No Waves in Bond Market." Premise.  China moved…

March 4, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Undisputed Unaffordability

That is a phrase from the Washington Post’s oped on Social Security.I think it goes a bit too far, so I want to dispute the "undisputed unaffordability" of Social Security.I do not dispute that there…

September 18, 2005

United States
Synthetic CDOs, China and Systemic Risk

I suspect the stock of outstanding synthetic credit derivatives -- $ 1500 b in synthetic CDOs in 2004 v. $300 b or so in 2001, according to Mark Whitehouse of the Wall Street Journal -- is the only t…

July 11, 2005

China
China posts a $9.7 (call it 10) billion trade surplus in June

The $10 billion monthly surplus in June puts China on track for an annual trade surplus of $100 billion or more.The data brought China’s trade surplus for the first half of the year to $39.65bn, alre…

November 7, 2004

United States
Updated paper on the sustainablility of US trade and current account deficits

Nouriel and I have just posted our updated analysis of US external sustainability, i.e. the United States capacity to continue to run large trade and current account deficits.The paper is certainly l…

April 25, 2005

Economics
Some good news

Boeing seems to be making a bit of a comeback on the back of a new small, light plane (the 787). Airbus is left hawking a heavier, lumbering giant (the A380) in the face of rising fuel prices. That…

February 24, 2005

Monetary Policy
An Asian OPEC?

A less kind headline might be "Asian policy makers meet, agree to continue manipulating foreign exchange markets" Still, this Bloomberg article (link thanks to Calculated Risk) suggests that there ma…