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December 7, 2004

Capital Flows
Petroeuros

Monday’s FT had the story, drawing on this just released BIS report. It seems OPEC countries are holding fewer dollars and more euros in their external bank accounts. (Thanks to Marcel for alerting…

December 11, 2004

United States
Data releases next week

I am going to be away from my desk next week, and don’t expect to be posting much -- at least not until next Friday. I’ll miss three key data releases:The October trade data on Tuesday.The October T…

December 11, 2004

United States
The Global Test

My harping on the fact that US economic policy now has to pass a global test is not simply meant to score rhetorical points. I suspect that the same folks who financed the expansion of the US curren…

December 22, 2004

Politics and Government
A modest proposal of my own

My modest proposal: anyone writing about Social Security should have to pass a test demonstrating that they have read the Social Securities trustees report, and understand the basic dynamics of a sys…

December 27, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Beware of a 12 division budget and a 10 division tax base …

General Sinseki famously -- and it seems accurately -- warned of the risks of a "12 division strategy and a 10 division army." To paraphase the US Defense Secretary: You fight a war with the army y…

December 29, 2004

United States
Look who is supporting the mortgage market …

No Surprise: the People’s Bank of China. The PBOC has shifted from buying treasuries (03) to buying mortgage backed securities (04).From Reuters: "Make no bones about it, mortgages really went globa…

December 31, 2004

Capital Flows
Russia is to China as …

Canada is to the United States? Large in area, scarcely populated, cold and a major supplier of natural resources to its large southern neighbor ... Well, not yet. Russia, I think, generally exports…

January 2, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Social Security Crisis in 2018? Ridiculous

Take a look at this Washington Post article by Jonathan Weisman, which the big blogs have justly pounced on. The initial framing of Weisman’s article is just way, way off. Social security in no way…

January 3, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Borrowing is Saving, Up is Down

Edmund Andrews of the New York Times provides the Rosetta stone that lets us decipher the Bush Administration’s plan to cut the deficit, which seems to be a plan to pretend to cut the deficit. Here i…

January 4, 2005

Is the US a generous country?

I am not sure I want to wade into this debate.But I am pretty sure that Carol Adelman did not prove her case in today’s New York Times.Her argument is that aid flows are being privatized, and if you …