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February 18, 2020

Cybersecurity
Cyber Deterrence Is Dead. Long Live Cyber Deterrence!

Although the concept of cyber deterrence has fallen out of fashion in academic literature in recent years, it is being remolded in emerging approaches to national security. 

Sr Airman Jose Rivera, infrastructure technician U.S. Air Force, works at the 561st Network Operations Squadron (NOS) at Petersen Air Force Base in Colorado Springs, Colorado

May 4, 2008

Financial Markets
The Economist and Goldman on oil and the dollar

I liked the lede of this week’s economist story on the Fed, the dollar and oil: “THE spirit of St Augustine hovered over the Federal Reserve this week. “Oh Lord, let us stop cutting interest rates…

December 11, 2019

Trade
The USMCA Breakthrough: The New U.S. Trade Consensus and What it Means for the World

In the history of the domestic politics of trade, the breakthrough announced this week on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is a genuine milestone. Following intensive negotiations—in…

Pelosi USMCA Trade News Conference

October 24, 2019

Election 2020
Meet Mark Sanford, Republican Presidential Candidate

Update: Mark Sanford announced on November 12, 2019, that he was ending the campaign.  Donald Trump’s approval rating among Republican voters hovers around 90 percent. Numbers that high normally m…

Mark Sanford

February 18, 2007

China
Goldman: PBoC using swaps to limit reserve growth

Goldman seems to have confirmed something that I -- and, for that matter, Stephen Green of Standard Chartered and Louis Kuijs of the World Bank -- have suspected for a while: China's "true" reser…

October 29, 2006

China
Goldman economic research v. the Economist (Drivers of Chinese growth)

I, obviously, liked this week’s Economist article on China quite a bit.  So I really shouldn't still be writing about last week’s article on Chinese consumption growth.  That article argued that …

July 16, 2019

Cybersecurity
Building Resilience in the Fifth Domain

The time for new cyber strategies is over. The United States should work to achieve "cyber resilience," in which we actively manage the risk posed by even the most persistent nation-state actors.

A researcher of Hauri, an IT security software company investigating computer viruses, works at a lab of the company in Seoul March 22, 2013.

March 5, 2019

China
Taking Managed Trade Seriously—What Would a Deal that Tries to Close the Bilateral Deficit Need to Look Like?

If Trump wants to set targets for China’s imports, he should focus on its imports of manufactures—not on getting tweetable deliverables out of the soybeans and oil that China will import (from someon…

Taking Managed Trade Seriously—What Would a Deal that Tries to Close the Bilateral Deficit Need to Look Like?

February 27, 2019

Energy and Environment
“Perceptions” about Oil or Demand Realities?

Amin Nasser, Chief Executive Officer of Saudi Aramco, whose shareholder is a sovereign nation, weighed in this week with a warning against U.S. and European activist shareholders who are making deman…

The chief executive of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, speaks during an interview with Reuters in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, December 13, 2017

February 5, 2019

China
China's Slowdown and the World Economy

China, it now seems, has entered into a real slump. There were plenty of leading indicators. I should have given more weight, for example, to the slowdown in European exports to China over the cou…

China's Slowdown and the World Economy