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December 13, 2007

United States
Richard Iley on the US current account deficit

Richard IleyBrad Setser: Richard Iley of BNP Paribas – the author, with Mervyn Lewis, of a new book on the US current account deficit --- doesn’t see the world quite the way I do.   I put a l…

iley_investment_income_try_2

December 18, 2007

United States
Yes, Virginia, the world’s central banks are financing most of the US current account deficit (my rebuttal to Richard Iley)

Back in the summer of 2004, Nouriel Roubini and I published a paper arguing that large trade deficits implied a deteriorating US net international investment position and a deteriorating “income” bal…

setser_gross_private_flows_01

March 1, 2009

Monetary Policy
Secrets from the Treasury’s Survey: It looks like China bought a lot of equities just before the stock market tumbled

Late on Friday, the US Treasury released the preliminary results of its annual survey of foreign portfolio investment in the US. That always makes for an interesting weekend. The survey offers …

Secrets from the Treasury’s Survey: It looks like China bought a lot of equities just before the stock market tumbled

November 28, 2007

Financial Markets
What should replace the Gulf’s peg to the dollar? More on my Peterson institute policy brief

Oil and the dollar have not consistently moved in the same direction over the past ten years.     In 1997/1998, oil tanked and the dollar soared.In 2000, oil and the dollar both rose – in large par…

January 28, 2009

Monetary Policy
Central banks were not the big buyers of synthetic triple AAA …

Ricardo Caballero argues that the current crisis stems from (flawed) efforts to construct safe assets out of risky assets in order to meet a surge in investor demand for safe assets. He is on to som…

April 11, 2007

Emerging Markets
It is hard for the world to diversify away from the dollar when the world’s holdings of dollars need to rise by about a trillion a year

OK, I probably should strike “world” and insert “the world’s governments” instead.  It is pretty clear that central banks and oil investment funds provided the bulk of the financing the US needed in …

em_reserve_growth_small

June 11, 2007

Monetary Policy
“Asia’s importance in the bond market cannot be overstated”

That quote doesn't come from me -- but from someone with a bit more authority: Jim Caron, co-head of global interest rate strategy at Morgan Stanley (quoted by Michael MacKenzie in Monday's F…

central_bank_demand_quarters

November 13, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Will partial privatization of social security pass the global test?

This post is primarily about the implications of partial privatization of social security on the budget, not about its overall merits. For what it is worth, I personally think good old pay-as-you-go …

February 8, 2005

Chairman Greenspan: Do Not Worry, Be Happy

The Chairman gave policy makers a green light not to worry about the US current account deficit: the dollar’s existing fall will lead the deficit to turn around. The Chairman’s remarks also seem to …

May 12, 2005

United States
The sustainability of the current account deficit, once again

The market seems to have concluded that there is no need to put any pressure on the US to reduce its large external deficits. The dollar is up, at least against the euro. So is the renminbi for th…