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July 28, 2005

Emerging Markets
Argentina has found an easy way to keep its reserves from rising

Pay off the IMF. Argentina is one of the few countries whose reserves have been growing about as fast as China's.  It just started 2003 with about $10 b in reserves (and a ton of debt), whil…

July 29, 2005

Economics
More trade with Central America, less with China?

Is that the deal that brought wavering Republicans from textile states on board?  We will see. But the House speaker, J. Dennis Hastert, told him they needed his vote anyway. If he switched from "nay…

August 9, 2005

Capital Flows
Iran, Nukes, China, Oil, and a few other things

I wonder if Iran's intransigence is any way related to this? Obviously, the risk of a supply disruption, whether in Saudi Arabia, Iran or Iraq is one reason why oil prices are high. But I suspect…

August 25, 2005

Capital Flows
Peter Galbraith and Iraq

I think the folks over at TPM Café are right: David Brooks' latest New York Times column is a real flip-flop.  He has gone from celebrating the United States firm commitment to universal democrat…

September 12, 2005

United States
Katrina and the current account deficit

At least a half percent off US GDP growth for the remainder of this year (Goldman says more), $150 billion in new federal spending (much of that in fiscal 2006), higher gasoline prices now and next y…

September 29, 2005

Financial Markets
Has the IMF been asleep at the wheel, and ignored surveillance of exchange rates?

Tim Adams - the new US Treasury Under Secretary - thinks so: IMF Article IV requires that the IMF exercise "firm surveillance" over the exchange rate policies of members. After the collapse of the Br…

November 26, 2005

Economics
Kansas is flat, the world is not …

To paraphrase the New Economist, the Financial Times must think the world is flat.  They just gave Tom Friedman the inaugural Financial Times/ Goldman Sachs book prize last week - for a book based on…

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November 28, 2005

Emerging Markets
No more Lavagna. What’s next for Argentina?

Two weeks ago I would have expected Brazil's Finance Minister to be forced out before Argentina's Finance Minister...   However, Palocci is a close ally of Brazil's Lula; Argentina's …

December 30, 2005

Economics
Things I got wrong in 2005

Alas, this list is rather long.   There is a reason why Mike Dooley ended the first segment of our Econoblog debate by noting that he had been right (and I and other worry warts had been wrong) for 2…

January 6, 2006

United States
The USA, China and Saudi Arabia - the big three of global adjustment?

The standard discussion of the unbalanced world divies the world up into three: the US, Europe and Japan/ Asia.   And the standard discussion of global imbalances says all three need to do their part…