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August 25, 2005

Capital Flows
Peter Galbraith and Iraq

I think the folks over at TPM Café are right: David Brooks' latest New York Times column is a real flip-flop.  He has gone from celebrating the United States firm commitment to universal democrat…

September 29, 2005

Financial Markets
Has the IMF been asleep at the wheel, and ignored surveillance of exchange rates?

Tim Adams - the new US Treasury Under Secretary - thinks so: IMF Article IV requires that the IMF exercise "firm surveillance" over the exchange rate policies of members. After the collapse of the Br…

September 12, 2005

United States
Katrina and the current account deficit

At least a half percent off US GDP growth for the remainder of this year (Goldman says more), $150 billion in new federal spending (much of that in fiscal 2006), higher gasoline prices now and next y…

October 6, 2004

Capital Flows
Cheney is wrong: $80 billion in debt relief if not equal to $80 billion in cash

Last night, Vice President Cheney claimed that US allies were contributing $80 billion to the war in Iraq by providing Iraq with debt relief. He compared this $80 billion in debt relief to the cash …

November 28, 2005

Emerging Markets
No more Lavagna. What’s next for Argentina?

Two weeks ago I would have expected Brazil's Finance Minister to be forced out before Argentina's Finance Minister...   However, Palocci is a close ally of Brazil's Lula; Argentina's …

January 6, 2006

United States
The USA, China and Saudi Arabia - the big three of global adjustment?

The standard discussion of the unbalanced world divies the world up into three: the US, Europe and Japan/ Asia.   And the standard discussion of global imbalances says all three need to do their part…

November 26, 2005

Economics
Kansas is flat, the world is not …

To paraphrase the New Economist, the Financial Times must think the world is flat.  They just gave Tom Friedman the inaugural Financial Times/ Goldman Sachs book prize last week - for a book based on…

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December 30, 2005

Economics
Things I got wrong in 2005

Alas, this list is rather long.   There is a reason why Mike Dooley ended the first segment of our Econoblog debate by noting that he had been right (and I and other worry warts had been wrong) for 2…

January 22, 2006

Emerging Markets
Too many currencies? Or too many dollar pegs?

The world has too many currencies.   The dollar is too good a currency not to be shared.    The US has a clear comparative advantage in central banking.   National pride - and a desire to maintain "m…

January 19, 2006

Financial Markets
The global flow of oil

The health of the US economy - and for that matter the world economy - hinges on the sustained flow of capital from the world's emerging economies to the US.   The health of the US economy also d…