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June 29, 2005

Capital Flows
Selling off little pieces of yourself

If the US wanted to fund its current account deficit by selling equity, it would need to sell off the equivalent of 40 Unocal’s a year -- whether Chinese state firms, European firms, Japanese insurer…

June 8, 2005

Economics
Should the world finance the World Bank rather than the United States

Note: Title credit goes to Jeff Frankel, who moderated a panel I participated on.Paul Wolfowitz just took over at the World Bank. He already seems to have indicated that is not going to follow Desmo…

August 30, 2005

Economics
Rubin doctrine of international finance v. Greenspan doctrine …

The Rubin doctrine of international finance (From In an Uncertain World):1. The only certainty in life is that nothing is ever certain.2. Markets are good, but they are not the solution to all proble…

July 22, 2005

China
Fluctuating between 8.1101 and 8.1102

So far, the PBoC has allowed to RMB to move within a new trading band of 8.1101 to 8.1102: Dealers said they expected the central bank to keep the currency around 8.1100 for weeks, or even month…

July 30, 2005

United States
Since the US government is unwilling to take any action, the US current account deficit cannot be a problem.

The IMF just published its annual report on the US economy. The report was in some ways remarkably frank.    And it outlined the core policy choice the US government has made, namely, not to do anyth…

August 26, 2005

United States
Dollar crashes, interest rates fall?

Alan Greenspan's legacy may hinge on whether that headline is written, or whether the headline reads: "Dollar crashes, interest rates surge." From Reuters:Although a dollar crash is unlikely anyt…

July 6, 2005

China
Worrying about debt to China

Jesse Eisinger has a nice Long and Short column exploring CNOOC’s bid for Unocal in the Wall Street Journal. I liked this quote from Lehman’s Ethan Harris:The Cnooc bid "strikes people that we really…

September 28, 2005

Emerging Markets
Sovereign bankruptcy

Sovereign bankruptcy is hardly a hot topic right now.   Its fifteen minutes of fame are long gone.But it briefly occupied the attention of top policy makers.  And some of you may be interested in my …

November 3, 2005

Emerging Markets
What ever happened to US relations with Latin America?

One of the things that has fascinated me is that US-Latin America relations have soured so much under Bush's watch.  I think I am fascinated in part because I don't really buy the standard ex…

March 22, 2005

Economics
What did I miss?

Let’s see.Paul Wolfowitz looks set to take over the World Bank. Oil is a bit over $56. That is not low, by any measure. I remember how much concern there was last summer when oil broke $40.The cur…