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December 20, 2018

United States
115 Percent of Trump’s China Tariff Revenue Goes to Paying Off Angry Farmers

“Billions of Dollars are pouring into the coffers of the U.S.A.,” tweeted President Trump last month, “because of the Tariffs being charged to China.” It would be nice if it were true. But it …

115 Percent of Trump’s China Tariff Revenue Goes to Paying Off Angry Farmers

December 20, 2018

Conflict Prevention
What to Worry About in 2019

In the Preventive Priorities Survey, the Center for Preventive Action identifies the greatest risks to the United States to help mobilize attention and resources to avert potential danger. 

Ships and aircraft in the Philippine Sea

January 4, 2018

Zimbabwe
Recently Evicted White Farmer Gets His Land Back in Zimbabwe

President Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe ordered the return of Lesbury Farm to the white Smart family after they were forcibly evicted this June by the Mugabe administration.

Zimbabwe-land-rights-farm-Mugabe

October 10, 2018

China
Who Controls the Tap? Addressing Water Security in Asia

The absence of a U.S. response to China’s encroachment on Asia’s rivers points to a failure to comprehend the regional implications of increased competition for water resources.

China water hydropower

April 6, 2018

Nigeria
Perceptions of Tribalism and the Farmer-Herder Conflict in Nigeria

The president’s apathetic response to the conflict in the middle belt encourages the perception of many southern Nigerians and even a few northerners that Muhammadu Buhari is the “President of the North,” rather than of Nigeria as a whole.

Nigeria-Fulani-Farmer-Herder-Violence-Benue

September 14, 2018

Conflict Prevention
Seventeen Years After 9/11 and Still Vulnerable to Strategic Surprise

The United States still does not have an effective strategic foresight system to assess and mitigate geopolitical risks. 

Tribute in Light installation in New York City

January 18, 2019

Nigeria
UPDATE: The Numbers Behind Sectarian Violence in Nigeria

Has sectarian violence in the Middle Belt increased significantly in 2018? On December 20, 2018, we published year-to-date data. Below we publish data for the entire year of 2018. Based on an analysis of Nigeria Security Tracker data, the short answer to the first question is yes, violence has almost doubled since 2017.

Nigeria-Sectarian-Violence-Numbers

January 17, 2019

China
Will China’s Currency Hit a Wall?

Worry about China’s slowing economy in 2019, not its balance of payments…

Will China’s Currency Hit a Wall?

January 16, 2019

Somalia
Al-Shabab

Al-Shabab remains capable of carrying out massive attacks in Somalia and surrounding countries despite a long-running African Union offensive against the Islamist group. 

Al-Shabab in Somalia

January 7, 2019

Public Health Threats and Pandemics
The Ebola Virus

Endemic to the African tropics, the Ebola virus has killed thousands in recent years, putting the World Health Organization and major donor countries in the limelight as they’ve grappled with how to …

A health-care worker stands next to a cross during the funeral of a person suspected of dying of Ebola in Beni, Democratic Republic of Congo.