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February 25, 2005

Capital Flows
Oil, and a bit of geopolitics

On Thursday, the Financial Times, the New York Times and Tom Friedman all weighed in on Asian reserve diversification. Paul Blustein of the Washington Post has an A1 story today on another of my comm…

April 17, 2005

Economics
A few things Europe does (relatively) well

Some Europeans enjoy taking a few rhetorical pot shots at America every now and then. More and more Americans enjoy reciprocating.I suspect that US criticism of Europe will step up a gear in the nea…

June 29, 2005

Capital Flows
Selling off little pieces of yourself

If the US wanted to fund its current account deficit by selling equity, it would need to sell off the equivalent of 40 Unocal’s a year -- whether Chinese state firms, European firms, Japanese insurer…

May 27, 2005

Economics
Housing bubbles, the great plains and the coast

Not all parts of America are enjoying a housing bubble. $65,000 will buy a brick home with three bedrooms and a two car garage in Stafford Kansas, though maybe not ten acres of prairie as well. Low…

June 8, 2005

Economics
Should the world finance the World Bank rather than the United States

Note: Title credit goes to Jeff Frankel, who moderated a panel I participated on.Paul Wolfowitz just took over at the World Bank. He already seems to have indicated that is not going to follow Desmo…

June 30, 2005

Capital Flows
CNOOC (once again)

The CNOOC bid presumably is motivated by two things. One, Beijing has plenty of cash, and already holds more Treasuries than it wants, so it wants to diversify its portfolio. As I argued earlier, C…

July 22, 2005

China
Fluctuating between 8.1101 and 8.1102

So far, the PBoC has allowed to RMB to move within a new trading band of 8.1101 to 8.1102: Dealers said they expected the central bank to keep the currency around 8.1100 for weeks, or even month…

September 29, 2005

Financial Markets
Has the IMF been asleep at the wheel, and ignored surveillance of exchange rates?

Tim Adams - the new US Treasury Under Secretary - thinks so: IMF Article IV requires that the IMF exercise "firm surveillance" over the exchange rate policies of members. After the collapse of the Br…

August 30, 2005

Economics
Rubin doctrine of international finance v. Greenspan doctrine …

The Rubin doctrine of international finance (From In an Uncertain World):1. The only certainty in life is that nothing is ever certain.2. Markets are good, but they are not the solution to all proble…

August 26, 2005

United States
Dollar crashes, interest rates fall?

Alan Greenspan's legacy may hinge on whether that headline is written, or whether the headline reads: "Dollar crashes, interest rates surge." From Reuters:Although a dollar crash is unlikely anyt…