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March 1, 2006

United States
Rising trade deficit financed by fast-growing poor countries watch

Consumption up.   Up by almost 1% in a month.   Consumption continues to grow faster than income.    Household savings, consequently, are down.    Michael Mandel, are you sure you want to argue that …

March 27, 2006

United States
Good thing Michael Mandel read my 2004 paper, not my 2005 paper -

With the 2004 paper on US external sustainability, there is at least some possibility that Nouriel's and my dire forecasts will prove to be right.   The core argument of that paper is that the contin…

May 25, 2006

United States
You know, there are safe havens that do not have a current account deficit of $1 trillion …

Incidentally, I am not the only one who thinks that the US current account deficit is heading toward a trillion.   The OECD now forecasts $965b current account deficit in 2006 (7.2% of GDP), and $107…

June 12, 2006

United States
Calculation envy - the last US owned Treasury bill will be bought by the People’s Bank in 2012 …

Niall Ferguson had a big weekend.   His article on the United States’ propensity to go into debt gets published in the New York Times Magazine.  He compares the US economy to a dinosaur named debtlod…

June 18, 2006

Emerging Markets
A hard landing in 2006 - just not in the US?

Nouriel and I postulated back in early 2005 that there was a meaningful risk that the next “emerging market” crisis might come from the US – and it might come sooner than most expected.   The basic q…