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December 14, 2005

United States
Better try to find some more dark matter (October trade data)

It is pretty obvious that the US October trade deficit was quite large, even by recent American standards.   Taking into account expected valuation changes (US assets in Europe are currently on the b…

February 13, 2006

Monetary Policy
It is back. Bretton Woods 2 (central bank financing of the US)

Some would say it never really went away.Emerging market economies did not stop accumulating reserves in 2005.  Best I can tell, adjusting for valuation effects and including all the foreign assets o…

March 1, 2006

United States
Rising trade deficit financed by fast-growing poor countries watch

Consumption up.   Up by almost 1% in a month.   Consumption continues to grow faster than income.    Household savings, consequently, are down.    Michael Mandel, are you sure you want to argue that …

March 27, 2006

United States
Good thing Michael Mandel read my 2004 paper, not my 2005 paper -

With the 2004 paper on US external sustainability, there is at least some possibility that Nouriel's and my dire forecasts will prove to be right.   The core argument of that paper is that the co…

May 25, 2006

United States
You know, there are safe havens that do not have a current account deficit of $1 trillion …

Incidentally, I am not the only one who thinks that the US current account deficit is heading toward a trillion.   The OECD now forecasts $965b current account deficit in 2006 (7.2% of GDP), and $107…

June 12, 2006

United States
Calculation envy - the last US owned Treasury bill will be bought by the People’s Bank in 2012 …

Niall Ferguson had a big weekend.   His article on the United States’ propensity to go into debt gets published in the New York Times Magazine.  He compares the US economy to a dinosaur named debtlod…

June 18, 2006

Emerging Markets
A hard landing in 2006 - just not in the US?

Nouriel and I postulated back in early 2005 that there was a meaningful risk that the next “emerging market” crisis might come from the US – and it might come sooner than most expected.   The basic q…

July 13, 2006

United States
US oil imports (in volume terms) may have plateaued, but has the US trade deficit peaked?

Jeremey Peters' New York Times article on the trade deficit says that there is no sign that the US demand for oil imports is slowing.   The evidence: oil imports, in millions of barrels per day, …

non_petroleum_07_2006

September 8, 2006

Monetary Policy
Watch out China, you may soon be (financially) out-gunned …

China’s July reserve increase – at least if the end-July total of $954.5b that the Chinese leaked is right (Lex had a slightly higher number) – was pathetic. A measly $14b.  Not the manly $20…

September 11, 2006

China
The Wall Street Journal (finally) takes note: Europe, not the US, explains the recent surge in China’s exports

I was tempted to title this blog “$18.8 billion more reasons for Tyler Cowen, Dan Drezner, Greg Mankiw and a host of others to think the RMB isn’t really undervalued.”  But that would be a bit…