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September 20, 2018

International Finance
Three Sudden Stops and a Surge

Reflections on the Global Financial Crisis, through the lens of the U.S. balance of payments.

Three Sudden Stops and a Surge

January 17, 2018

China
A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds

A primer on China reserve watching.

A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds

September 13, 2018

Turkey
Could A Coalition of the “Friends of Turkey” Ride to Turkey’s Financial Rescue?

Turkey is in a bit of financial trouble. It isn’t clear that today's rate hike on its own will be enough. The rate hike will make the lira a bit more attractive to foreign investors (and will raise t…

Could A Coalition of the “Friends of Turkey” Ride to Turkey’s Financial Rescue?

August 20, 2018

Turkey
Framing Turkey’s Financial Vulnerabilites: Some Rhymes with the Asian Crisis, but Not a Repeat

Turkey has some similarities with the Asian crisis countries back in the 1990s, but also important differences. When emerging-market crisis typologies are updated to reflect the events of 2018, Turke…

Framing Turkey’s Financial Vulnerabilites: Some Rhymes with the Asian Crisis, but Not a Repeat

August 13, 2018

Russia
Did Russia Really Dump Its U.S. Debt?

“Russia dumped 84% of its American debt,” blared a July CNN headline. Russian central-bank head Elvira Nabiullina said the sales were just part of “diversifying the entire structure of currencies…

Did Russia Really Dump Its U.S. Debt?

July 30, 2018

International Economic Policy
Gone Fishing

I am planning to take the next few weeks off—no blogging. That at least is the plan, barring a major financial surprise. It thus seems a natural time to look back at the topics I have covered in t…

July 23, 2018

China
China’s Currency Is Back in Play

China's currency is getting awfully close to some key levels, levels where in the past China has resisted further depreciation. The signals China sends from here on will be critical.

China’s Currency Is Back in Play

January 3, 2018

China
China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention. And Europe's Too Little

The ECB has almost certainly had a bigger impact on U.S. rates over the last three years than the PBOC, without buying (or selling) any Treasuries.

China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention.   And Europe's Too Little

July 26, 2017

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico’s “Voluntary” Restructuring of GDB Bonds

Puerto Rico’s Oversight Board didn’t object to the terms of Puerto Rico’s proposed restructuring of the Government Development Bank bonds (and selected deposits) so it looks like the GDB restructurin…

July 10, 2018

China
My Latest Take on China's Foreign Exchange Intervention Proxies

This one is for my currency trading friends...

My Latest Take on China's Foreign Exchange Intervention Proxies