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September 30, 2019

Puerto Rico
Is Puerto Rico Back on a Path Toward Debt Sustainability?

The plan of adjustment put forward by the oversight board, if approved by enough creditors and the courts, would cut Puerto Rico’s tax supported debt from $50 billion to $25 billion and smooth its re…

Is Puerto Rico Back on a Path Toward Debt Sustainability?

October 3, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ Billion Dollar Enigma (Part 1)

Taiwan’s central bank, unlike most central banks, doesn’t disclose its position in FX derivatives. It really should. There is good reason to think its undisclosed exposure is quite substantial.   …

A Taiwan dollar note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017.

July 26, 2017

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico’s “Voluntary” Restructuring of GDB Bonds

Puerto Rico’s Oversight Board didn’t object to the terms of Puerto Rico’s proposed restructuring of the Government Development Bank bonds (and selected deposits) so it looks like the GDB restructurin…

September 23, 2019

Argentina
Argentina’s Default Risk: What to Know

With elections approaching, Argentina faces yet another debt crisis.

December 1, 2016

China
China’s Bond Market Can’t Handle a Global RMB

    The Chinese RMB’s ascension into the IMF’s SDR currency basket in October has been widely seen as an important first step on its path to becoming a global reserve currency.  But we woul…

China’s Bond Market Can’t Handle a Global RMB

September 5, 2019

South Korea
Can Korea Provide a New (Fiscal) Model for North Europe’s Twin Surplus Countries?

Korea looks to be doing a real stimulus. Other "twin surplus" countries should too.

Can Korea Provide a New (Fiscal) Model for North Europe’s Twin Surplus Countries?

December 6, 2016

Sub-Saharan Africa
S&P Leaves South Africa’s Bond Rating Unchanged

Standard & Poor (S&P), the international credit rating agency, left its assessment of South Africa’s foreign-currency debt unchanged. It remains at the same level as Italy’s and India’s. However, it …

sp-leaves-south-africas-bond-rating-unchanged

October 26, 2016

Monetary Policy
Inflows from Private Bond Investors Into the U.S.

The global capital flows story these days is complex. I wanted to build on Landon Thomas’ article with a set of charts drawing out how I think large surpluses in Asia and Europe are now influencing t…

foreign-private-purchases

August 22, 2019

Election 2020
Meet Michael Bennet, Democratic Presidential Candidate

Prostate cancer is the second most common type of cancer among American men. One in nine American men will be diagnosed with it during their lifetimes. Colorado Senator Michael Bennet is one of them…

Michael Bennet

August 20, 2019

Trade
The Next Stage of the U.S.-China Trade War Will Be Much Worse

The trade war between the United States and China has entered a new and dangerous phase.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu